Angebot und Nachfrage im Außenhandel : Theoretische Überlegungen und eine Kointegrationsanalyse für Deutschland

This study was written as a dissertation by Martin Meurers at the Faculty of Economics of Göttingen University and was submitted in October 2002. In study focuses on an empirical analysis of the elasticities between supply and demand in import and export markets with respect to price and exchange-rate changes as well as changes in macroeconomic output. The estimates are made with the help of equation and error correction models and the multivariant approach of Johansen (1988, 1991). It uses quarterly data of 1975–1999 for German imports and exports. The analysis is carried out both for aggregated trade flows as well as differentiated for consumption, investment and intermediate goods. On basis of the estimation results, it forecasts how prices and volumes in exports and aggregate foreign trade react to exchange rate changes. It presents short- and long-term reactions and the repercussions from changes in aggregate prices and incomes.