Economic activity 2012: Forecasts and Reality

According to provisional results published on 15 January 2013, real GDP increased by 0.7% in 2012. The forecasting error of 0.3 percentage points was due to the fact that the 0.5% growth rate of real GDP in the first quarter of 2012 was 0.4 percentage points higher than estimated by the Ifo Institute in December 2011. The higher statistical starting point resulted in an increase of a similar magnitude in the average annual growth rate. The fact that the average annual forecasting failure for real GDP nevertheless only amounted to 0.3% is due to the unforeseen decline in overall economic output during the last quarter of the year and correct forecasting of the economic cycle over the summer.