Economic Forecasts Today– Possibilities and Problems

Economic forecasts estimate economic developments in the present and forthcoming year at a highly aggregated level. The focus lies on statements regarding changes in the pace of the economy and the turning points of macroeconomic variables in cyclical economic activity. Economic forecasts are conditional probability statements. The fact that conditions change constantly makes it necessary to adjust forecasts accordingly. Even if forecasts cannot dispel uncertainty regarding the future, they make it easier for companies to plan and facilitate adjustments in economic and financial policy in line with future developments.