Article in Journal
Business Cycle 2013: Forecast and Reality
Wolfgang Nierhaus
ifo Institut, München, 2014
ifo Schnelldienst, 2014, 67, Nr. 02, 41-46
ifo Institut, München, 2014
ifo Schnelldienst, 2014, 67, Nr. 02, 41-46
The Ifo Institute has critically examined the quality of its own business surveys for years. This article discusses discrepancies between forecasts and reality in 2013. The main reason for the forecasting error of 0.3 percentage points was that the statistical overhang at the end of 2012 was overestimated by exactly this amount.
JEL Classification: O100, O400