Evaluation of Ifo Economic Forecasts – a Comparison with Forecasts by Consensus Economics

A comparison of the economic forecasts made by the Ifo Institute since 1991 with forecasts by Consensus Economics in terms of accuracy shows that the Ifo forecasts of the rates of change in real domestic product in Germany for the ongoing and forthcoming year prove more reliable - albeit only slightly - than corresponding average forecasts by Consensus Economics. This result can be interpreted as an indicator of the quality of Ifo’s forecasting methods.