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Britain's Departure from the EU: Can the European Union Survive a Brexit?

Michael Wohlgemuth, Friederike Welter, Holger Schmieding, Franz Peter Lang, Bert van Roosebeke
ifo Institut, München, 2016

ifo Schnelldienst, 2016, 69, Nr. 10, 13-26

On June 23, the British vote on whether their country should remain a member of the European Union or not. Michael Wohlgemuth, Open Europe Berlin, fears that a Brexit would be "a heavy blow" for German proponents of a regulated market economy over those favouring a more interventionist economic order. Friederike Welter, Institute for SME Research, Bonn, sees the UK as the main loser of a possible EU withdrawal. If the United Kingdom left the EU, the country would not only lose its investment attractiveness but also possibly some corporate headquarters. According to Holger Schmieding, Berenberg, the European Union could survive a Brexit without serious economic consequences. But if other countries were to follow suit, the damage could be significant. Franz Peter Lang, Technical University of Braunschweig, also sees less damage to Europe and its economy since the relocation of economic activities from the island to Europe would have a mitigating effect. Bert Van Roosebeke, Centre for European Policy, Freiburg, points out the risk that as a result of a Brexit the Scots could decide to become independent of the UK.

JEL Classification: E420, F150, F330, F590

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ifo Institut, München, 2016