A Flash Estimate of Private Consumption in Germany

As the most important expenditure component, private consumption plays a significant role in every economic forecast. This article analyses the forecasting quality of a number of indicators that can be used to forecast private consumption in the short term. It emerges that survey results and indicators from official price statistics show the highest degree of accuracy for the ongoing quarter and the quarter ahead. The combination approach developed by the Ifo Institute also offers very good forecasts. Based on this combination approach, growth rates in real private consumption in the third and four quarters 2016 are forecast at 0.4% respectively.