Working World 4.0: Growth in Prosperity or Inequality and Job Loss – What Effects will Digitalisation Have?

The working world is once again in a state of upheaval. In the public debate, fears are being expressed that technological change and, in particular, digitisation will lead to job losses. Is this concern justified, or will the "Working World 4.0" even bring about new jobs and gains in prosperity? Oliver Stettes, Institute of the German Economy, Cologne, points to the difficulties of estimating the substitutability of jobs by digital technology. As prominent as the fear may be that algorithms, computers or robots are massively replacing people in the working world, there is (at present) hardly any empirical backing for this hypothesis. Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory and Ulrich Zierahn, Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, see massive structural change as a major result of digitisation. New technologies are putting pressure on jobs, but at the same time they are creating new jobs, and in the recent past the positive effect has been dominant. Katharina Dengler, Institute for Labor Market and Professional Research (IAB), Nuremberg, sees no massive reduction in employment from digitisation at present. Nevertheless, education and lifelong learning remain important. Daniel Veit, University of Augsburg, and MÜNCHNER KREIS, emphasizes the growing need for action from society and politicians, which in his opinion includes, in addition to education and training, the development of meta-competencies. Promoting creativity and a willingness to experiment more strongly will be an essential task for all players in the education sector. Werner Eichhorst and Ulf Rinne, Research Institute for the Future of Labor (IZA), Bonn, view the risks associated with digitisation as "quite manageable". The currently available empirical evidence suggests that there is no reason for "alarmism and exaggerated fears". Currently, there is an opportunity to act and create appropriate "guard rails" for the working world of the future. However, the time frame for this important transformation process is narrowing.