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Do Countries with Current Account Surpluses Export Unemployment?

Martin Braml, Gabriel Felbermayr, Lucia Wilbert
ifo Institut, München, 2018

ifo Schnelldienst, 2018, 71, Nr. 16, 20-25

It is often argued that countries with high current account surpluses are responsible for unemployment in other states. This article looks at the limited correlations between both variables and finds no evidence of any data to justify such an argument. There is a lack of conclusive proof- either theoretical or empirical - that an increase in the current account balance or net exports is linked to an increase in the current account balance; or that net exports are linked with a general fall in the unemployment rate. The conclusion that countries with high current account surpluses have enriched themselves (in the labour market) at the expense of deficit countries does not seem compatible with the data available. On the contrary, it looks like rising current account balances tend to be linked to higher unemployment.

JEL Classification: F160, J210

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