Article in Journal

Brexit: A “Hard but Smart” strategy and its consequences

Gabriel Felbermayr
ifo Institut, München, 2019

ifo Schnelldienst, 2019, 72, Nr. 04, 27-33

A hard Brexit would be much more expensive for the UK than for the EU. With a “hard but smart” strategy, on the other hand, the UK would unilaterally forgo all new barriers, i.e. completely do away with import tariffs. As a result, there would be no substantial difference between the percentage welfare loss of the UK and that of the Continent. This fundamentally changes the negotiating situation. The analysis suggests that the EU Commission should not stubbornly cling to the withdrawal agreement, which is unacceptable for London, but should draw up constructive alternatives.

JEL Classification: F330, F340, F590, H200

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ifo Institut, München, 2019