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European Construction Stays on Track for Growth Until 2021 – Selected Results of the EUROCONSTRUCT Winter Conference 2018

Ludwig Dorffmeister
ifo Institut, München, 2019

ifo Schnelldienst, 2019, 72, Nr. 02, 47-54

According to the latest analyses by experts from the 19 member countries of the EUROCONSTRUCT network, construction services in the entire area rose again strongly last year. However, at just under 3%, growth was significantly lower than in 2017, when construction activities expanded by over 4%. Annual growth rates should continue to decline gradually right up until the end of the forecast period. At a rate of less than 1½%, construction output will only expand moderately in 2021. At the same time, however, a further increase in construction activity can be expected for 15 of the total of 19 member countries. While building construction is now growing far more slowly than in 2016 and 2017, the civil engineering sector picked up considerable momentum in 2018. Civil engineering volumes will probably continue to rise sharply in the current year. Over the entire forecasting period up to 2021, this sub-segment should show by far the highest growth rates. By contrast, new residential construction, which grew by a third in the five-year period 2014 to 2018, is unlikely to grow at all from 2020. The last major increase in housing completions in the near future is expected in 2019.

JEL Classification: L740, E300

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ifo Institut, München, 2019