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The US Before the Election Campaign: The Traces of Donald Trump in Business and Politics

Henning Vöpel, Harms Bandholz, Gabriel Felbermayr, Christoph Spengel, Jost Heckemeyer, Martin Mosler, Niklas Potrafke, Henrik Müller
ifo Institut, München, 2020

ifo Schnelldienst, 2020, 73, Nr. 01, 03-29

On November 3, 2020, it will be decided whether Donald Trump will be elected US President for a second time. In line with his rigorously pursued “Make America Great Again” campaign slogan, diplomatic conventions have been broken and decades-old international treaties have been declared null and void. A new paradigm also applies to trade policy: Trump has threatened and introduced special tariffs, particularly on imports from China and the EU, in order to reduce the US current account deficit. His 2017 tax reform brought massive relief for domestic companies. What long-term effects have three years of “America First” policy had on the world? How has the US tax reform affected international tax competition? What are the consequences of the trade dispute? What does Trump’s policy mean for the cohesion of the Western alliance? And is the US becoming a factor of uncertainty for global economic and geopolitical development?

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ifo Institut, München, 2020