How to Empirically Measure Economic Uncertainty - A Presentation Using Germany as an Example

In economic crises, uncertainty about further economic development also increases. The empirical measurement of this uncertainty is difficult, however, as it cannot be observed directly but must be derived from other available variables. There are several approaches to make uncertainty measurable. In this article, we present the best-known approaches using examples for Germany and try to identify the approach most promising for measuring uncertainty. Overall, uncertainty measures based on business surveys appear to be the most suitable for quantifying economic uncertainty in Germany.