Sentiment in the German export industry has deteriorated noticeably. The ifo Export Expectations fell to minus 5.6 points in June, down from plus 1.0 points in May. This is the lowest level since November 2022. “In addition to weak demand on the German domestic market, we’re now also seeing fewer orders from abroad,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “This is bad news for Germany’s export economy.”
Le moral des exportateurs allemands s’est sensiblement dégradé. Leurs prévisions communiquées à l'Institut ifo ont reculé, passant de +1,0 point en mai à -5,6 points ce mois-ci. C'est le niveau le plus bas depuis novembre 2022. « Le ralentissement de la demande intérieure se double désormais d’une baisse des commandes depuis l'étranger », constate Klaus Wohlrabe, directeur des enquêtes de l'Institut ifo. « Il s'agit d'une évolution préoccupante pour les exportateurs allemands. »
German manufacturing is seeing fewer material shortages. In May, 35.3% of the companies surveyed reported shortages, down from 39.2% in April. This is a finding from the ifo Institute’s latest survey. “The easing provides a little relief to Germany’s manufacturers as they deal with the difficulties of the current economic situation,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “They can process existing orders more quickly, thus sustaining production. At present, the companies surveyed have an order backlog equivalent to 4.3 months of production – much more than the long-term average of 2.9 months. The decline in orders is therefore not yet having too great an impact.”
The willingness among companies in Germany to hire new staff has declined. The ifo Employment Barometer fell to 98.3 points in May, down from 100.2 points in April. “Fewer new orders and rising uncertainty are causing restraint among companies,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Caution is also on the rise in the service sector, which until recently had been more positively inclined.”
Sentiment in the German export industry is markedly worse. The ifo Export Expectations fell to plus 1.8 points in May, down from plus 6.5 points in April. This is the lowest level since November 2022. “Global interest rate hikes are slowly having an effect on demand,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “The German export economy lacks momentum.”
Le moral des exportateurs allemands s'est sensiblement détérioré. En mai, les prévisions communiquées à l'Institut ifo ont reculé, passant de + 6,5 points en avril à + 1,8 points. C'est le niveau le plus bas depuis novembre 2022. « Les hausses des taux d’intérêt commencent à peser sur la demande », explique Klaus Wohlrabe, directeur des enquêtes conjoncturelles de l’Institut ifo. « Les entreprises exportatrices allemandes ont perdu de leur dynamisme. »
German manufacturers are having an easier time sourcing raw materials and intermediate products. In April, 39.2% of the companies surveyed reported problems, down from 41.6% in March. “That’s good news for the sector, not least because it marks a rise in new orders,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “But the companies would surely have also been delighted if the situation had eased even more.”
Companies in Germany are more willing to hire new staff. The ifo Employment Barometer rose to 100.2 points in April, up from 99.9 points in March. “Employment is continuing to grow, although that growth is slowing, partly because of the shrinking population,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “The drivers of employment growth in Germany are the service providers.”
Sentiment among German exporters has improved noticeably. The ifo Export Expectations for manufacturing companies rose to plus 6.9 points in April, up from plus 4.1 points in March. This is its highest level since February 2022. “Robust economic development in the US and the encouraging trend in China are increasing demand for German exports,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “After a weak start to the year, exports have been able to grow again in the second quarter.”
Le moral des exportateurs allemands s'est nettement amélioré. En avril, les prévisions communiquées à l'Institut ifo en matière d'exportations ont progressé, passant de + 4,1 points en mars à + 6,9 points, soit le niveau le plus élevé depuis février 2022. « Une solide reprise conjoncturelle aux États-Unis et les signaux positifs venant de Chine donnent des ailes aux exportations allemandes », constate Klaus Wohlrabe, directeur des enquêtes conjoncturelles de l’Institut ifo. « Après un début d'année décevant, elles devraient renouer avec la croissance au cours du deuxième trimestre ».
It has become easier for German companies to obtain new loans. In March, 22.7 percent of companies in ongoing credit negotiations reported restraint on the part of banks. In December, that figure was 30.0 percent. This is a finding of surveys by the ifo Institute. “The turbulence at some international banks is having no impact on lending in Germany,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
Material shortages in German manufacturing are slowly dissipating. In March, 41.6 percent of the companies surveyed reported problems, down from 45.4 percent in February. This is a finding from the ifo Institute’s latest survey. “This easing will have a positive impact on industrial production in the months ahead,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “But we’re still a long way from an ideal supply situation.”
German companies are once again willing to hire more staff. The ifo Employment Barometer rose to 99.9 points in March, up from 99.4 points in February. “The labor market is proving very robust,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Service providers in particular are looking for new employees.”
Sentiment among German exporters has brightened somewhat. The ifo Export Expectations rose to 4.0 points in March, up from 3.5 points in February. “Export demand still lacks some momentum,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Global economic development is rather subdued.”
Les prévisions des exportateurs allemands indiquent une timide remontée de leur moral : l'indice ifo est passé de 3,5 points en février à 4,0 points au mois de mars. « La demande sur les marchés à l'export reste quelque peu morose », constate Klaus Wohlrabe, directeur des enquêtes conjoncturelles de l’Institut ifo. « Et l'évolution de la conjoncture mondiale traduit un certain attentisme. »
There has been a noticeable improvement in the business climate for Germany’s self-employed, finds the latest index for this segment (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”). The indicator rose to minus 1.1 points* in February, up from minus 7.3 points in January. “More and more self-employed people are feeling hopeful about the months ahead,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Also, uncertainty is in decline.”
The shortage of materials in German manufacturing has continued to ease. In February, 45.4 percent of the companies surveyed reported problems. This is the lowest level since April 2021. In January, the figure was 48.4 percent. This is a finding of the ifo Institute’s latest survey.
The business climate for Germany’s self-employed continued to recover at the beginning of the year. In January, the index for this segment (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”) rose to minus 7.3 points (not seasonally adjusted), up from minus 11.4 points (not seasonally adjusted) in December. “While pessimism is dwindling, it’s still too early to talk about a noticeable improvement for the self-employed,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
Fewer German companies feel their economic survival is threatened. The proportion fell to 4.8 percent in January from 6.3 percent in December, finds an ifo Institute survey.
Material shortages have decreased in German manufacturing. In January, 48.4 percent of the companies surveyed reported problems. In December, that figure was 50.7 percent. This is a finding of the ifo Institute’s latest survey. “Given the mild winter recession that’s emerging, we would’ve liked to see a stronger decline,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Many companies are only slowly managing to work through their high order backlogs.”