At present, 6.8% of German companies feel their economic survival is threatened, finds an ifo Institute survey. In the previous survey conducted in January 2023, it was 4.8%. “The current phase of economic weakness is leading to a growing number of corporate insolvencies,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “But there’s not yet any indication of this turning into a larger wave.”
In Germany, fewer companies are expecting prices to rise in the months ahead. Price expectations fell to 15.3 points in October, down from 15.7 points* in September. The most noticeable drop was in consumer-related industries. Among food retailers, the balance fell from 53.0 points* to 41.6 points, among other retailers from 31.8 points* to 28.3 points, and among consumer-related service providers from 35.1 points* to 29.3 points. “This means that consumer prices will still continue to rise. However, the pace will ease off and with it inflation,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
In Germany, fewer companies are expecting prices to rise in the months ahead. Price expectations fell to 15.3 points in October, down from 15.7 points* in September. The most noticeable drop was in consumer-related industries. Among food retailers, the balance fell from 53.0 points* to 41.6 points, among other retailers from 31.8 points* to 28.3 points, and among consumer-related service providers from 35.1 points* to 29.3 points. “This means that consumer prices will still continue to rise. However, the pace will ease off and with it inflation,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
“The German economy bottomed out in the summer, and starting in the fall, things should slowly start picking up again,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo. His comments are in response to the German Federal Statistical Office’s report that the country’s economic output fell by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023. “The ifo Business Climate Index rose in October for the first time since April. The outlook for the coming months in particular has brightened, but companies are also assessing their current situation as somewhat better,” Wollmershäuser says to explain the rise. He adds: “According to our estimates, economic output should increase by 0.1% in the fourth quarter.”
Deutschlands Wirtschaftswachstum schneidet im Ländervergleich erwiesenermaßen schlecht ab. Timo Wollmershäuser erklärt eine Reihe von besonderen Faktoren, die sich zusätzlich negativ auf die aktuelle konjunkturelle Lage auswirken.
Munich, le 26 octobre 2023 – Le président de l'Institut ifo, M. Clemens Fuest, s'est félicité de la pause des taux d'intérêt actée par la Banque centrale européenne (BCE). « C'est une bonne décision. Les hausses des taux directeurs qui se succèdent rapidement depuis un an ont contribué à atténuer l'inflation tout en stabilisant l'anticipation de son évolution future. Cette tendance continuera sans doute dans les prochains mois. Une baisse des taux d’intérêt serait cependant prématurée. Il faudrait pour cela un recul supplémentaire de l'inflation. Or, les récents accords salariaux élevés ainsi que les risques liés aux prix de l'énergie justifient une certaine prudence à cet égard. »
The ifo President Clemens Fuest has welcomed the decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave interest rates unchanged. “This is a good decision. Rapid interest rate hikes over the past year or so have helped to dampen inflation and stabilize inflation expectations, and this development is expected to continue in the months ahead. However, it is still too early for interest rate cuts. These must wait for inflation to decline further. Especially given high wage settlements and energy price risks, there’s no guarantee that this will happen.”
Des économistes du monde entier anticipent une baisse des taux d'inflation dans les prochaines années. C'est ce qui ressort de l'Economic Experts Survey (EES), un sondage trimestriel réalisé par l'Institut ifo et l'Institut de politique économique suisse IWP. D’après ce sondage, le taux d'inflation mondial atteindra 6,2 % cette année, avant de tomber à 5,2 % en 2024 et à 4,5 % en 2026. Pendant l'année en cours, l'inflation sera de 5,1 % en France, de 4,5 % en Belgique, de 2,6 % en Suisse et de 5,2 % au Luxembourg. « Si ces prévisions restent élevées, elles ont cependant sensiblement reculé par rapport au trimestre précédent », constate Niklas Potrafke, chercheur à l'Institut ifo.
Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to decline in the years ahead, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this survey, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 6.2 percent this year, then 5.2 percent next year, and 4.5 percent in 2026. In the UK, inflation for the current year is expected to reach 6.5 percent, in Ireland 5.6 percent, in the US 4.2 and in Canada 4.1 percent. “Although inflation expectations are still high, they have fallen significantly compared with the previous quarter,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke.
How are economists’ expectations for future price developments evolving worldwide? Can a decline in inflation expectations be observed? The latest survey of the Economic Experts Survey (EES) of the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy examines inflation expectations of economists on a global level. The result: although inflation expectations worldwide remain well above central banks’ inflation target, a further decline in the expected inflation rate for 2023 compared with previous quarters is evident.