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ifo Economic Forecast — 6 March 2024

ifo Economic Forecast Spring 2024: German Economy Paralyzed

Sentiment among companies and households is poor and uncertainty is high. Price-adjusted gross domestic product will increase by only 0.2 percent this year compared to the previous year. Next year, economic output will then increase by 1.5 percent. This means that the growth forecast for the current year has been significantly lowered (by 0.7 percentage points) compared to the ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2023 and slightly raised (by 0.2 percentage points) for 2025. Contrary to expectations, the German economy is in recession in the winter half-year 2023/24. In particular, a recovery in industrial activity will not set in until later

ifo Economic Forecast — 14 December 2023

ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2023: Economic Recovery Delayed – Budget Gap Harbors New Risks

Price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise by 0.9% next year, following a decline of 0.3% this year.

ifo Economic Forecast — 7 September 2023

ifo Economic Forecast Autumn 2023: German Economy Continues to Cool

Price-adjusted gross domestic product will decline by 0.4% this year. In the next two years, economic output is expected to increase by 1.4% and 1.2%. The inflation rate will fall further from an average of 6.0% this year to 2.6% next year and 1.9% the year after.

ifo Economic Forecast — 21 June 2023

ifo Economic Forecast Summer 2023: Inflation Slowly Easing – But Economy Still Faltering in Germany

Gross domestic product will decline by 0.4% this year and increase by 1.5% next year.

ifo Economic Forecast — 15 March 2023

ifo Economic Forecast Spring 2023: German Economy Stagnating

Price-adjusted GDP will stagnate at around the prior-year level this year (−0.1%) and increase by 1.7% next year. At 6.2% on average, the inflation rate in 2023 will be only slightly lower than a year earlier. The rate is not expected to fall to 2.2% until next year.

ifo Economic Forecast — 14 December 2022

ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2022: Inflation and Recession

Gross domestic product will increase by 1.8% this year and contract slightly by 0.1% next year. In 2024, growth will be back up to 1.6%.

ifo Economic Forecast — 12 September 2022

ifo Economic Forecast Autumn 2022: Inflation Stifles Private Consumption - German Economy Facing a Hard Winter

Gross domestic product will still increase by 1.6 percent this year and then contract by 0.3 percent next year. Inflation will average 8.1 percent this year and rise to 9.3 percent next year.  It is expected to peak in the first quarter of 2023 at around 11 percent. In 2024, economic output is expected to increase by 1.8 percent and the inflation rate to fall to 2.4 percent.

ifo Economic Forecast — 15 June 2022

ifo Economic Forecast Summer 2022: Inflation, Supply Bottlenecks, and War Slow Economic Recovery in Germany

Since the beginning of the year, the German economy has been recovering from earlier waves of the coronavirus. The associated normalization of spending in the consumer-related service sectors is giving the economy a strong boost. However, high inflation, the war in Ukraine, and continuing supply bottlenecks are slowing the economic recovery in almost all sectors of the economy. GDP will grow by 2.5 percent in 2022 and 3.7 percent in 2023. This year the inflation rate is expected to reach 6.8 percent, its highest level since 1974. Consumer prices are also expected to rise at an above-average rate of 3.3 percent next year.

ifo Economic Forecast — 23 March 2022

ifo Economic Forecast Spring 2022: Consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian War Slow the German Economy

To take account of the imponderables regarding the further course of the Russian-Ukrainian war, two scenarios were considered for the forecast. The base scenario assumes only a temporary increase in raw material prices, supply bottlenecks, and uncertainty. In the alternative scenario, the situation initially worsens before gradually easing from mid-year. Under these assumptions, GDP is expected to grow by only 3.1 percent (base scenario) and 2.2 percent (alternative scenario) this year, noticeably less than previously expected (3.7 percent). In the coming year, growth is then expected to be 3.3 percent (base scenario) and 3.9 percent (alternative scenario).

ifo Economic Forecast — 14 December 2021

ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2021: Supply Bottlenecks and Coronavirus Wave Slow Down German Economy

Gross domestic product will increase by 2.5 percent this year and by 3.7 percent and 2.9 percent in the next two years. Compared with the ifo Economic Forecast Autumn 2021, the growth rate for 2021 has been retained. However, the growth rate for 2022 was lowered by 1.4 percentage points and raised by 1.4 percentage points for 2023. The shift in economic momentum from next year to the year after is largely due to the fourth wave of the coronavirus and to production difficulties in the manufacturing sector. 

ifo Economic Forecast — 22 September 2021

ifo Economic Forecast Autumn 2021: Supply Bottlenecks in Manufacturing Slow Overall Economic Recovery

Gross domestic product for Germany is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2021 and by 5.1 percent next year. The high growth rate in 2022 is largely due to the low level of production of goods and services in 2021. In 2023, the German economy will then expand again at normal rates.

ifo Economic Forecast — 16 June 2021

ifo Economic Forecast Summer 2021: German Economy Caught between Openings and Bottlenecks

Overall, gross domestic product is expected to grow by 3.3 percent in 2021 and 4.3 percent in 2022.

ifo Economic Forecast — 24 March 2021

ifo Economic Forecast Spring 2021: German Economy Staggering into Third Coronavirus Wave

Gross domestic product for Germany is expected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2021 and by 3.2 percent in 2022. Looking at total economic output for the years 2020 to 2022, the cost of the coronavirus crisis according to this forecast is EUR 405 billion.

ifo Economic Forecast — 16 December 2020

ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2020: The Coronavirus Strikes Back – Another Lockdown Slows the Economy for a Second Time

The economic recovery is likely to have come to a halt for the time being and gross domestic product is likely to shrink again in the final quarter. All in all, economic output is expected to slump by 5.1 percent in 2020. For the remainder of the forecast period, it has been assumed that the infection control measures in place since November will remain in force unchanged until March 2021 and will then be gradually eased. Against this background, price-adjusted gross domestic product is expected to grow by 4.2 percent in 2021.

ifo Economic Forecast — 22 September 2020

ifo Economic Forecast Autumn 2020: German Economy Still on Course for Recovery

In Germany, economic output is expected to be 5.2 percent lower on average for the year than in 2019. Given the assumed pace of recovery, GDP will not reach its pre-crisis level until the fourth quarter of 2021. The average annual growth rate in the coming year will then be 5.1 percent.

ifo Economic Forecast — 1 July 2020

ifo Economic Forecast Summer 2020: German Economy Heads Back Up

The coronavirus pandemic and the measures to contain it have plunged the German economy into what is by far the deepest recession in its post-war history. Due to the low production of goods and services during the shutdown, growth rates should be strong at 6.9% and 3.8% in the third and fourth quarters. Nevertheless, economic output is expected to be 6.7% lower on average this year than in 2019. The recovery will continue next year.  GDP is expected to grow by 6.4% on average over the year.

ifo Economic Forecast — 28 May 2020

ifo Economic Forecast 2020 Update: Economic Contraction of 6.6 Percent in Germany Most Likely (28.5.2020)

The German economy will probably shrink by 6.6 percent this year and then grow from this low level by 10.2 percent next year, according to the updated ifo Economic Forecast for 2020/2021. “This is based on our evaluation of the ifo survey conducted among companies in May. On average, participants consider it most likely that their own business situation will return to normal in nine months,” says Timo Wollmershaeuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.

ifo Economic Forecast — 28 April 2020

ifo Economic Forecast Spring 2020 Update: German Economic Output Collapses by 16% during Coronavirus Shutdown

During the coronavirus shutdown, economic output in Germany has collapsed by 16%. This is the result of an evaluation of April’s ifo surveys among some 8,800 companies across almost all industries. The estimate was based on the companies’ reported capacity utilization in January and in April as well as the actual and expected difference in sales in the first and second quarters.