Le moral des entreprises s'est nettement amélioré, comme le montre la progression de l'indice ifo du climat des affaires, de 85,7 points en février à 87,8 points[1] en mars. Les prévisions des entreprises s'avèrent beaucoup moins pessimistes. L'évaluation de la situation actuelle affiche elle aussi une amélioration. Une lueur d'espoir se profile à l’horizon pour l’économie allemande.
Sentiment in German companies has improved noticeably. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 87.8 points in March, up from 85.7 points in February. In particular, companies’ expectations turned much less pessimistic. Assessments of the current business situation also improved. The German economy glimpses light on the horizon.
Europeans should do more for their own economic strength. This is ifo President Clemens Fuest’s recommendation in view of the elections in Europe and the United States. “If Europe’s security and prosperity depend primarily on the outcome of US presidential elections, then we have made some fundamental mistakes,” he writes in a new ifo Viewpoint. Achieving greater strength should be the central theme of the European elections in June 2024 and the policy of the next European Commission. This includes defending the rules-based international order with partners wherever possible.
The shortage of skilled workers among companies in Germany has eased somewhat. According to the survey, 36.3% of firms are currently suffering from a shortage of qualified workers, down from 38.7% in October 2023. A year ago, it was 43.6%. “The weakening economy is reducing demand for skilled workers in the short term,” says ifo expert Klaus Wohlrabe, “but the fundamental problem is here to stay.”
Working from home reduces the need for office space in Germany. This is the result of a new study conducted by the ifo Institute together with real estate consultancy Colliers for the major cities of Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt am Main, Stuttgart, and Düsseldorf. “Regular working from home has become the new normal for around 25% of employees and 69% of companies. This is leading to a decline in demand for office space, particularly among large companies and in industries where working from home is more commonplace. By 2030, it’s likely that the need for office space will have decreased by 12%. This would correspond to a drop in demand of around 11.5 million square meters in the seven major cities. The new world of work is triggering structural change in the office market,” says ifo researcher Simon Krause, coauthor of the study.
Plusieurs économistes de différents pays ont demandé à l'UE de considérer la crise énergétique mondiale résultant de l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie comme un signal d'alarme et de favoriser une meilleure coopération en Europe. « Le passage aux sources d'énergie non fossiles peut non seulement réduire la dépendance stratégique, mais aussi –s'il est correctement effectué – baisser le prix de l'électricité et aider l'UE et ses États membres à atteindre leurs objectifs climatiques. La poursuite de l'intégration du marché européen de l'électricité et du gaz est indispensable pour mieux compenser les pénuries régionales », affirment-ils dans un document rédigé pour le réseau de recherche EconPol Europe.
Economic researchers from various countries have called on the EU to view the energy crisis following the Russian attack on Ukraine as a wake-up call and to strive for better cooperation in Europe. “Not only can switching to non-fossil energy sources reduce strategic dependency: if done correctly, it can also lower electricity prices and help the EU and its member states achieve their climate targets. Further integration of the European electricity markets and gas grids is essential in order to better balance out regional shortages,” they write in a paper for the EconPol Europe research network.
The ifo Business Climate in Germany’s retail deteriorated in February for the third consecutive month, finds the latest ifo Institute survey. The indicator for assessments of the current business situation fell to -18 points, down from -15.2 points* in January. Expectations improved only slightly, with the indicator remaining at the low level of -36.7 points. “The economic environment remains very challenging for retailers,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. “Consumers are holding back on shopping, which is putting a strain on retailers’ businesses.”
The ifo Business Climate in residential construction has reached a new low. It fell to -61.9 points in February, down from -60.7 points in January. More than half of the construction companies surveyed are dissatisfied with the current situation. Expectations are also stuck at rock bottom. “At present there isn’t a single ray of hope on the horizon for residential construction,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Orders continue to be canceled. At the same time, building permits for apartments are in free fall.”
L'augmentation du risque de pauvreté dans une région entraîne la progression de l'extrême-droite. Ce constat est le résultat de calculs réalisés par l'Institut ifo. Lorsque la part des ménages vivant sous le seuil de pauvreté augmente d'un point de pourcentage, le score des partis d'extrême-droite augmente de 0,5 % lors des élections fédérales allemandes. « Un tel résultat est significatif aussi bien d'un point de vue statistique que politique », déclare Florian Dorn, chercheur à l'Institut ifo, sachant que la part des ménages les plus pauvres a augmenté de 1,9 % entre 1998 et 2017. Le seuil de pauvreté est fixé ici à 60 % du revenu médian.
Right-wing extremists gain votes in regions where the risk of poverty is growing, according to recent ifo Institute calculations. In Germany, if the proportion of households below the poverty line increases by 1 percentage point, the share of votes for far-right parties in federal elections increases by 0.5 percentage points. “This is statistically and politically significant,” says ifo researcher Florian Dorn. Between 1998 and 2017, the proportion of poorer households rose by 1.9 percentage points. The poverty line is defined as 60% of the median income.
In February, the business climate in the German chemical industry brightened a little. The indicator rose to -15.7 points, up from -16.1 points* in January, due to better assessments of the current business situation. Expectations, however, turned somewhat more pessimistic again. “The climate in the German chemical industry is still rough, but there have also been some surprising rays of hope,” says industry expert Anna Wolf of the ifo Institute.
Sentiment among the self-employed in Germany has improved. The Business Climate Index rose to -14.6 points* in February, up from -22.6 points* in January. This is a finding from the latest ifo survey for this segment (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”). The rise was due to less pessimistic expectations. However, the self-employed are particularly dissatisfied with their order backlog, which continues to shrink. “This segment is still far from optimistic,” says ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber.
L’Institut ifo, EconPol Europe et la Table ronde européenne sur le changement climatique et la transition durable (ERCST) ont exhorté la future Commission européenne à considérer la lutte contre le changement climatique comme une question de politique économique, industrielle et de concurrence. « Les coûts liés à la limitation des émissions de CO2 et les opportunités économiques qui découlent de l’apparition de nouvelles filières nécessitent une nouvelle approche », écrivent-ils dans un rapport publié vendredi à Bruxelles. « Les analyses économiques doivent prendre en compte tous les effets négatifs et positifs de la politique climatique, y compris ses conséquences possibles sur la consommation des ménages, la compétitivité industrielle et les chaînes d’approvisionnement », explique Clemens Fuest, président de l’Institut ifo. La nouvelle Commission doit préserver la compétitivité de l’Europe et la résilience de son économie.
The ifo Institute, EconPol Europe, and the European Roundtable on Climate Change and Sustainable Transition (ERCST) have urged the future European Commission to consider climate action also as a matter of economic, industrial, and competition policy. “This is due to the cost implications of CO2 restrictions as well as the economic opportunities created by emerging industries,” they wrote in a report published in Brussels on Friday. “The EU’s economic analysis must comprehensively consider both the negative and positive effects of climate policy, including the impact on people’s consumption opportunities, on industrial competitiveness, and on supply chains,” says ifo President Clemens Fuest. The next Commission must ensure Europe’s competitiveness and the resilience of its economy.
Over the past 18 months, companies in Germany have reduced their planned investments by an average of 8.4% due to higher interest rates. This is a finding from the ifo Business Survey of December 2023, which has now been published in ifo Schnelldienst. “Companies are responding to higher interest rates by investing significantly less in energy efficiency and renewables. They are also reducing their research and development spending,” says ifo researcher Manuel Menkhoff.
L’institut Ifo vient de réduire ses prévisions de croissance pour 2024 à 0,2 %, alors qu’il tablait encore sur 0,7 % en janvier et 0,9 % en décembre. Pour 2025, il relève toutefois ses estimations à 1,5 %, soit une hausse de 0,2 point. « La réticence des consommateurs, les taux d’intérêt élevés, la hausse des prix, les mesures d’austérité prises par le gouvernement et la faiblesse de la conjoncture mondiale freinent la croissance économique de l’Allemagne et provoquent une nouvelle récession hivernale. La disparition progressive de la pression sur les taux d’intérêt et sur les prix et les effets de la hausse du pouvoir d’achat des consommateurs devraient entraîner une amélioration des performances économiques à partir du milieu de l’année », explique Timo Wollmershäuser, directeur des enquêtes conjoncturelles de l’Institut ifo.
The ifo Institute has reduced its growth forecast for the current year to 0.2%, down from 0.7% in January and 0.9% in December. But for next year, it raised its growth estimate by 0.2 percentage points to 1.5%. “Consumer restraint, high interest rates and price hikes, the government’s austerity measures, and the weak global economy are currently dampening the economy in Germany and leading to another winter recession. Economic output will accelerate toward the middle of the year as interest rate and price burdens gradually disappear and consumers’ purchasing power increases,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
The pay gap for women in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland exists not just in base salary but in bonus payments as well. This has been shown by analyses conducted by the ifo Institute and the management consultancy Mercer for over 270 companies in the three countries. In Germany, women receive an average of 6.1% less in bonus payments. In Austria, the gap between men and women is 7.2%. Companies in Switzerland pay women an average of 5.2% less in bonuses.
In February, 24.1% of employees in Germany worked from home at least part of the time. This is the finding of an ifo Institute survey of just under 9,000 companies. “The proportion has remained almost constant for two years,” says ifo expert Jean-Victor Alipour. “Regardless of the debates at individual companies about returning to the office, working from home has become firmly established in Germany.”