Team
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Allemagne : L’indice ifo des exportations a chuté
Le moral des exportateurs allemands s’est détérioré. Les prévisions de l’Institut ifo en matière d’exportations dans l’industrie sont passées de plus 0,8 en janvier à moins 0,7 point en février. Les développements entourant le coronavirus ne laissent guère espérer d’amélioration à court terme.
Lack of Retail Sales in German City Centers – Suburbs and Surrounding Areas Benefit
Retail sales in German city centers remain below pre-pandemic levels, finds a recent study conducted by the ifo Institute for the Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, Stuttgart, and Dresden areas. “In March 2023, private spending in the city center was still 5% lower than in 2019. At the same time, residential areas and suburbs recorded strong gains in sales,” said Oliver Falck of the ifo Institute. Consumer spending rose by up to 30%, particularly in areas where many people could work from home.
ifo Business Survey Industry (2017a)
10.7805/ebdc-ibs-ind-2017a
Situation for German Automakers Worsens Slightly
The business situation for German automakers deteriorated in July, with the indicator falling to 20.5 points, down from 22.4 points in June. This is the result of the latest ifo survey. “Car manufacturers appear to have run out of options for passing on rising material costs to consumers,” says Oliver Falck, Director of the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies. Price expectations plummeted to 38.6 points, down from 73.1 points in June.
ifo Innovation Survey (2012)
10.7805/ebdc-ins-2012
Four Tools from the NoCovid Group to Prevent Further Lockdowns in Germany
The NoCovid research group aims to end the state of emergency in Germany with four new tools: designating low-incidence green zones; implementing these zones across Europe; accelerating the chain of testing, tracking, and isolating; and managing outbreaks locally. “The NoCovid strategy’s approach is to keep the health, economic, and democratic losses and resulting damages of the global pandemic as low as possible,” says Clemens Fuest, ifo President and co-signatory to the study.
ifo Employment Barometer Rises (August 2021)
Recruitment efforts at German businesses are picking up steam again. The ifo Employment Barometer climbed to 103.6 points in August after measuring 102.4 points in July. The upswing in the labor market continues.
Germany Should Keep Its Debt Brake
ifo President Clemens Fuest and Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance, argue that the German debt brake should be retained without reforms. The economists present their reasoning in a recent article for ifo Schnelldienst. “It forces politicians to set priorities. At the same time, it gives the government sufficient leeway to take on debt in cases where it makes economic sense,” Fuest says. The current regulations also include the possibility of special cases for taking on debt, as for the German Armed Forces. Requiring a two-thirds majority in a Bundestag vote is appropriate in such instances.
Indice ifo en hausse
Le moral des entreprises allemandes s'est amélioré. L'indice ifo du climat des affaires s'est relevé, passant de 88,6 points en décembre à 90,2 points en janvier. Si cette embellie est due à un pessimisme moins marqué par rapport à l'avenir, les entreprises se sont par contre déclarées un peu moins satisfaites de la marche actuelle de leurs activités. L'économie allemande aborde la nouvelle année avec davantage de confiance.
The EU Runs a Large Trade Surplus with Itself – One Reason Is Apparently Large-Scale VAT Fraud
The EU runs a trade surplus with itself of EUR 307 billion – a figure that should be zero if all transactions were properly reported and recorded. Measurement errors alone cannot account for this systematic deviation. Instead, one cause seems to be massive VAT fraud, which costs EU countries EUR 30–60 billion each year. This is the result of an empirical analysis jointly conducted by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) and the ifo Institute in Munich.
Economists Recommend Worldwide Easing of Coronavirus Restrictions
Coronavirus health measures have improved significantly during the first quarter of 2022, according to a survey of experts. On average, assessments were up 10 points compared to the previous quarter. Moreover, the respondents favored a further easing of restrictions. These are among the findings of the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute – which this time had 1,603 participants from 132 countries. “While protecting public health has been the priority during the pandemic, the economic cost of the coronavirus has been high,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “The relatively mild effects of the Omicron variant mean that restrictions can now be eased considerably.”
Learning Gaps Pose Threat to Germany’s Long-Term Prosperity
ifo education expert Ludger Wößmann is deeply troubled by the academic results achieved by elementary school children in Germany. “The pronounced gaps are alarming because the fundamentals taught in school affect both the opportunities these children will have later on and Germany’s future prosperity,” Wößmann says in response to the latest results on trends in education published by the Institute for Educational Quality Improvement (IQB). “The current decline is unprecedented.”
Little Benefit in Making Social Security Contributions for Interest, Dividends, and Rent Compulsory
Experts from the ifo Institute advise against increasing social security contributions by making interest, dividends, and rent subject to compulsory contributions. “Depending on the assumptions, expanding the assessment base would result in only a moderate increase in income subject to compulsory contributions – a rise between 2.4 and 4.0 percent,” write researchers Anne Steuernagel and Marcel Thum from the ifo branches in Fürth and Dresden.
ifo Institute: German Industry Less Keen to Exhibit at Trade Fairs in the Future
After Covid-19, trade fair companies will have to prepare for business to be more difficult. Fully 39 percent of the German industrial companies that have exhibited at trade fairs in the past intend to reduce their participation in such events. This is a finding from the ifo Business Survey for August. Only 2 percent intend to participate in more trade fairs in the future, while 59 percent are not looking to change the degree of their commitment. “Trade fairs will remain important for companies, but they will have to change,” says ifo trade fair expert Horst Penzkofer.
ifo Researcher Ragnitz Criticizes Traffic Light Coalition’s Postponement of Major Pension Reform in Germany
Fundamental problems with Germany’s pension funds must not be left until after the next round of federal elections, said ifo researcher Joachim Ragnitz in Dresden on Wednesday. “Coalition officials aren’t addressing the real problem: with baby boomers now starting to retire, the current pension level cannot be maintained indefinitely. As a result, after 2026, pension contribution rates will have to rise to more than 20 percent of gross wages.” This will directly burden Germany’s shrinking working-age generation, he said, adding that introducing a tax-financed capital stock into the statutory pension insurance system wouldn’t solve the problem either.
Les Allemands constatent une baisse de qualité dans les écoles
Selon les Allemands, la qualité des écoles s’est détériorée. Seules 27 % des personnes interrogées donnent encore aux écoles la note de 1 ou 2 (1 étant la note maximale). En 2014, ce score s’élevait encore à 38 %. 79 % estiment que la qualité de l’enseignement scolaire s’est dégradée en raison de la pandémie de COVID-19. C’est ce qui ressort du Baromètre de l’éducation établi par l’Institut ifo à partir des réponses de plus de 5 500 adultes. « Ces chiffres sont alarmants », estime Ludger Wößmann, directeur du Centre de l’économie de l’éducation au sein de cet institut. « Il est urgent de résoudre les problèmes de l’école ; les Allemands se disent prêts à le faire. »
ifo Institute: 56.2 Percent of German Companies Are Suffering from the Consequences of the Coronavirus Epidemic
The German economy is suffering considerably from the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic, with 56.2 percent of companies currently experiencing negative effects. This is the result of a recent survey the ifo Institute conducted of almost 3,400 service providers as well as companies in industry and trade. The situation is worst for tour operators and travel agencies, where nearly 96 percent are seeing a negative impact. At 79 percent, companies in the hospitality and restaurant industry are also being severely affected. Only 2.2 percent of all companies report a positive effect.
Institut ifo : le secteur automobile peine à se remettre de la crise
Les constructeurs automobiles allemands et leurs équipementiers estiment que leurs affaires vont actuellement mieux qu'au mois d'août. La situation globale reste cependant mauvaise. C'est ce qui ressort de la toute dernière enquête conjoncturelle de l'Institut ifo. Au mois de septembre, l'indicateur correspondant est monté à –19,0 points, après –35,9 points en août. Cet indicateur avait atteint son niveau le plus bas au mois d'avril, avec –87,0 points. « D'abord catastrophique, puis très, très mauvaise, la situation est aujourd'hui simplement mauvaise : c'est en ce sens que l'on peut parler d’un progrès », explique Stefan Sauer, expert de l'Institut ifo.
Business Climate for Germany’s Self-Employed Clouds Over
The business climate for Germany’s self-employed has deteriorated, finds the latest ifo survey for this segment (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”). The index fell to -12.6 points* in June, down from -8.6 points* in May. “There’s a kind of domino effect at work here,” says ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber. “Since many large companies are short of orders, they’re also placing fewer orders with the self-employed.”
ifo Institute Affirms 0.6 Percent Growth in 2019
The ifo Institute has reaffirmed its spring forecast of 0.6 percent economic growth in 2019. “Economic development is divided. The export-oriented manufacturing sector, which generates about a quarter of the value added, is in recession. At the same time, domestically oriented service providers and the construction industry are recording robust and sometimes strong growth,” says Timo Wollmershaeuser, Head of ifo Economic Forecasts.