Economic Experts Survey: Global Pessimistic Growth Expectations for 2023 Brighten by 2026 – Except in Europe (Q4 2022)
Do economic experts around the world expect a recession in 2023? And what are the long-term expectations for economic development? This round of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute examines economists’ expectations for economic growth at the global level. More than 1,500 influential experts from 133 countries participated in the survey and were asked about their expectations for economic development in their countries for 2023, 2024, and 2026. The results show that experts worldwide are rather pessimistic about economic development in their countries in 2023 but do not expect a severe recession overall.
On average, a global growth rate of 2.8 percent is expected for 2023, which is around 0.4 percent lower than the actual growth rates in the ten years before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. For 2024 and 2026, the experts predict an average recovery of 3.3 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. Compared with the increasingly optimistic expectations in the rest of the world, experts in Europe are less confident. There they expect low growth rates in 2023, in particular in Eastern Europe (0.1 percent) and Western Europe (0.7 percent). These will adjust only slowly to the overall positive global trend by 2026.
Pessimistic Expectations for 2023, but No Global Recession
Note: The figure shows the expected global average economic growth for 2023 (2.8 percent), 2024 (3.3 percent), and 2026 (3.8 percent). The median of the averages at the country level is shown.
For 2023, the economists surveyed expect global average economic growth of 2.8 percent. This is the median of the average expected growth rates at the country level. The median is used because the expected growth rates vary greatly from region to region, and because strong outliers in the expectations are recorded in some countries and regions. Overall, the expectations for 2023 are about 0.4 percentage points below the median global growth rate in the ten years prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Despite their generally pessimistic expectations, experts worldwide do not anticipate a recession. The exception to this is Europe: experts see their countries on the verge of a recession, especially those in Western and Eastern Europe.
On average, experts expect economic growth to increase again in the coming years. The projected growth rates of 3.3 percent for 2024 and 3.8 percent for 2026 are above the global average of the 2010–2019 period.
Growth Expectations in Africa and Southeast Asia More Positive than in the Rest of the World
Note: The figure shows the arithmetic mean of expected economic growth in the regions for the year 2023.
A look at the individual continents reveals major differences in expectations for economic growth among the world’s regions in 2023. Experts in parts of Africa and Asia are much more confident than in the rest of the world. The highest growth of around 8 percent is expected in East Africa. In Southeast Asia (4.7 percent), Central Africa (4.7 percent), and West Africa (5.2 percent), experts expect higher growth rates than in the rest of the world. Excluding the tendency toward more positive expectations in Africa and Asia, global expectations for economic growth in 2023 would be just 1.7 percent. However, even in large parts of Africa and Asia, the expected growth rates lag behind the average development of recent years.
Experts in Europe are less optimistic. They believe that the economies of Eastern Europe in particular are on the verge of a recession (0.1 percent). For the countries in Northern Europe (1.2 percent) and Western Europe (0.7 percent), the experts also expect low average growth rates, and for Germany, the expectations are even below the average for Western Europe (0.5 percent). Moderate growth rates are expected in North America (1.6 percent), South Asia (1.7 percent), Central Asia (2.1 percent), and Southern Africa (2.3 percent).
Note: The figure shows the arithmetic mean of expected economic growth in the regions for 2024.
Note: The figure shows the arithmetic mean of expected economic growth in the regions for the year 2026.
More Optimistic Global Outlook for 2024 and 2026
For 2024 and especially for 2026, experts worldwide expect an economic recovery. This is particularly true of those regions where growth is expected to be low in 2023. In Eastern Europe, for example, economic output is expected to increase by 4.3 percent in 2026. Experts also expect growth rates to rise again in Western Europe (2.0 percent), Northern Europe (2.8 percent), and Southern Europe (3.5 percent).
In North America, growth is expected to increase moderately by 2.4 percent in 2026. This roughly corresponds with expectations for Central America (2.7 percent). At 3.4 percent, South America will see the highest growth among the American regions.
Growth rates in Asia are also expected to increase in the medium term. The region with the strongest increase in the period between 2023 and 2026 is South Asia, where the expected growth rates for 2023 (1.7 percent) and 2026 (4.7 percent) differ noticeably. In East Asia, the experts expect an increase of 3.5 percent in 2026, and in West Asia of 4.1 percent. The two Asian regions with the highest expectations for 2023, Central and Southeast Asia, also have the highest expected growth rates in economic performance for 2026.
In Africa, too, the economists surveyed are significantly more optimistic about economic growth the further into the future they look. For example, experts in Southern Africa expected a growth rate of 3.5 percent in 2023, which is exceeded by expectations in North and Central Africa of 4.1 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively. As for 2023, the highest increases in economic output are expected in West Africa (6.5 percent) and East Africa (10.6 percent).
Participants in the countries of Oceania expect average economic growth of 3.8 percent for 2026.
The Economic Experts Survey (EES) is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. A total of 1,537 economic experts from 133 countries participated in the survey on inflation from December 7, 2022, to December 21, 2022. Experts’ responses refer in each case to the country in which they work or for which they have the highest expertise (for example, if the country of employment and the home country are different).
