ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany: Economic Engine Gathers Speed (February 2023)

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany improved markedly in February. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose to 94.7 points, up from 92.6 points in January. The companies surveyed raised their overall assessments of the current situation appreciably, while their outlook for the next six months improved noticeably.

Download

In eastern German manufacturing, the business climate brightened considerably in February. The manufacturing companies surveyed assessed the business situation as somewhat better than in the previous month. There was also a marked improvement in their outlook.

In the eastern German service sector, sentiment rose substantially in February. Assessments of the current situation and business expectations both improved considerably.

In eastern German trade, the barometer of business sentiment rose noticeably in February. Compared to the previous month, the businesses surveyed gave somewhat improved assessments of their current business. At the same time, they raised their expectations for the next six months considerably.

In eastern German construction, the business climate brightened slightly in February. Participating construction companies reported a palpable improvement in their assessments of the current situation, while their business expectations declined slightly.

Joachim Ragnitz and Marcel Thum
Executive Directors, Dresden Branch of the ifo Institute

ifo Business Climate in Eastern Germany, February 2023

ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany

(Index, 2015 = 100, seasonally adjusted)

	02/22	03/22	04/22	05/22	06/22	07/22	08/22	09/22	10/22	11/22	12/22	01/23	02/23
Climate	99.9	93.1	94.6	94.7	94.2	92.5	91.3	85.3	86.2	89.4	92.0	92.6	94.7
Situation	101.2	98.8	98.8	101.0	101.3	100.6	99.0	94.3	93.1	96.0	97.5	97.0	99.2
Expectations	98.7	87.7	90.4	88.7	87.6	85.1	84.2	77.3	79.7	83.3	86.9	88.4	90.3

Source: ifo Business Survey.
© ifo Institute

ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany by Sector

(Balances, seasonally adjusted)

	02/22	03/22	04/22	05/22	06/22	07/22	08/22	09/22	10/22	11/22	12/22	01/23	02/23
Eastern Germany	15.6	0.8	4.0	4.3	3.3	-0.3	-3.0	-15.9	-14.1	-7.1	-1.5	-0.2	4.2
Manufacturing	15.7	-0.3	-1.3	2.4	-1.1	-9.3	-11.9	-23.4	-12.5	-12.2	-2.7	-3.2	0.4
Service sector	19.0	7.2	14.3	11.7	13.9	11.1	7.5	-5.4	-6.7	3.0	5.9	8.2	12.6
Trade	-4.1	-13.9	-19.0	-11.8	-20.5	-22.2	-26.3	-39.1	-31.8	-29.6	-28.3	-27.4	-20.8
Construction	0.5	-21.0	-31.0	-17.7	-12.6	-18.7	-17.7	-22.7	-26.5	-22.0	-23.3	-23.6	-22.4

Source: ifo Business Survey.
© ifo Institute

The ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany is based on approx. 1,700 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesale, and retail. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterize their situation as “good,” “satisfactory,” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favorable,” “unchanged,” or “more unfavorable.” The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”; the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favorable” and “more unfavorable.” The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2015.