ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany: Index Rises (April 2023)

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany improved slightly in April. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose to 96.5 points, up from 95.4 points in March. The companies surveyed adjusted their assessments of the current situation a little downward, while their outlook for the next six months improved considerably.

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In eastern German manufacturing, the business climate brightened substantially in April. The manufacturing companies surveyed assessed the business situation as marginally worse than in the previous month. Their outlook improved significantly.

In the eastern German service sector, sentiment trended sideward in April. Service providers’ assessments of their current situation declined a little, while their business expectations increased slightly.

In eastern German trade, the barometer of business sentiment rose slightly in April. Compared to the previous month, the businesses surveyed gave noticeably gloomier assessments of their current business. At the same time, they raised their expectations for the next six months markedly.

In eastern German construction, the business climate was a touch cooler in April. Assessments of the current situation and business expectations both deteriorated compared to the previous month.

Joachim Ragnitz and Marcel Thum
Executive Directors, Dresden Branch of the ifo Institute

ifo Business Climate in Eastern Germany, April 2023

ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany

(Index, 2015 = 100, seasonally adjusted)

	04/22	05/22	06/22	07/22	08/22	09/22	10/22	11/22	12/22	01/23	02/23	03/23	04/23
Climate	94.2	94.6	94.1	92.4	91.4	85.9	86.7	89.4	91.8	92.5	94.7	95.4	96.5
Situation	98.4	101.1	101.4	100.7	99.1	94.4	93.3	96.1	97.5	97.1	99.3	99.3	98.2
Expectations	90.3	88.4	87.4	84.8	84.3	78.2	80.5	83.2	86.5	88.1	90.3	91.7	94.8

Source: ifo Business Survey.
© ifo Institute

ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany by Sector

(Balances, seasonally adjusted)

	04/22	05/22	06/22	07/22	08/22	09/22	10/22	11/22	12/22	01/23	02/23	03/23	04/23
Eastern Germany	3.3	4.0	3.1	-0.7	-2.7	-14.7	-13.0	-7.1	-1.9	-0.5	4.3	5.9	8.2
Manufacturing	-2.0	0.9	-1.4	-9.3	-12.3	-23.0	-12.1	-12.4	-2.8	-3.5	2.4	1.7	7.0
Service sector	13.3	11.8	14.0	11.2	7.6	-4.9	-6.1	3.3	5.9	8.1	12.6	17.7	17.7
Trade	-18.9	-11.9	-20.6	-22.3	-26.4	-38.8	-31.5	-29.6	-28.4	-27.4	-20.8	-21.9	-21.2
Construction	-28.8	-17.5	-12.5	-19.1	-16.5	-22.9	-26.7	-21.9	-23.3	-21.2	-23.1	-14.1	-16.0

Source: ifo Business Survey.
© ifo Institute

The ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany is based on approx. 1,700 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesale, and retail. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterize their situation as “good,” “satisfactory,” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favorable,” “unchanged,” or “more unfavorable.” The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”; the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favorable” and “more unfavorable.” The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2015.