Economic Experts Survey: Experts expect 2.6% Growth Worldwide (4th Quarter 2023)
Many countries around the world experienced a sharp decline in economic activity during the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by a gradual recovery. With high inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and ongoing supply chain disruptions, many regions of the world are once again facing uncertain economic development in the coming years. In the Economic Experts Survey for the fourth quarter of 2023, we therefore asked economic experts about their expectations for (real) GDP growth in 2024 (short-term forecasts) as well as in 2025 and 2027 (medium- and longer-term forecasts).
Economic experts from around the world expect average an GDP growth of 2.6% for 2024. This is roughly in line with the previous year's growth rate (2.7%). Experts from Africa and Asia in particular expect high growth rates for 2024 (3.6% in each case). For Europe (1.9%) and America (2.3%), the experts are rather cautious. Expectations for medium- and long-term development are more optimistic. Global growth of 2.9% is expected for 2025 and an increase of 3.3% for 2027.
Note: The chart shows the expected global average growth rates for the years 2024 (2.6%), 2025 (2.9%), and 2027 (3.3%). The figure shows the median of the averages at the country level.
Looking at the sub-regions, Western Africa (4.4%) and South-Eastern Asia (4.7%) will grow the fastest in 2024 according to the experts, while Northern Europe (1.4%) and Western Europe (1.1%) will lag behind. In a European comparison, the respective experts expect low growth rates for Sweden (0.4%), Finland (0.4%), the United Kingdom (0.5%), and Germany (0.6%) in particular. The experts in Austria (0.9%) and Switzerland (1.3%) are also more cautious. Stronger increases are expected for Spain (2.0%), Poland (2.8%), Ireland (2.8%), and Iceland (3.3%).
Note: The chart shows the arithmetic mean of the expected growth rates in the regions for 2024.
Note: The chart shows the arithmetic mean of the expected growth rates in the regions for 2025.
Note: The chart shows the arithmetic mean of the expected growth rates in the regions for 2027.
Notiz: Die Tabelle zeigt das arithmetische Mittel der erwarteten Wachstumsraten in den Regionen für die Jahre 2024, 2025 und 2027 für die aktuelle Umfragewelle Q4 2023 des Economic Experts Survey.
According to the experts, Africa and Asia will also grow the fastest in the medium to long term, with expected growth rates of over 4%. Experts in Northern, Central, and South America expect lower growth rates of 2.6% and 3% in 2025 and 2027. Only for Europe do the experts expect both medium- (2.3%) and long-term growth (2.7%) to be below the global average of the last ten years. For Germany, the experts expect moderate growth rates of 1.2% (2025) and 1.5% (2027) in the medium to long term, albeit at a relatively low level by international standards. However, there are also countries such as the United States that expect constant growth over the years (2.4% in 2024, 2025, and 2027).
Note: The chart shows the arithmetic mean of the expected growth rates in the European countries for 2024.
Note: The chart shows the arithmetic mean of the expected growth rates in the European countries for 2025.
Notiz: Die Abbildung zeigt das arithmetische Mittel der erwarteten Wachstumsraten in den Ländern Europas für das Jahr 2027.
The Economic Experts Survey (EES) is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. 1,431 economic experts from 124 countries participated in the survey on economic growth from December 7, 2023, to December 21, 2023. You can learn about more insights in the corresponding report Q4/2023 of the Economic Experts Survey.
Economic Experts Survey Q4 2023
ifo Institut, München, 2024
