ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany Improves Somewhat (January 2024)

The ifo Business Climate Index Eastern Germany rose slightly in January. Compared to December, the barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany increased by 0.4 points to 89.0 points. The eastern German companies surveyed provided assessments of their business situation that were unchanged from the previous month and raised their business expectations slightly.

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In eastern German manufacturing, the business climate brightened substantially in January. The manufacturing companies surveyed assessed their current business situation as slightly worse than in December, but raised their expectations for the coming months considerably.

In the eastern German service sector, the Business Climate Index fell a little in January. While the service providers surveyed were a little more satisfied with their current business situation, they lowered their business expectations slightly compared to the previous month.

In eastern German trade, the business climate was marginally gloomier in January. Trading companies in eastern Germany maintained their assessments of the current situation at roughly the same level as the previous month. Looking to the future, wholesalers in eastern Germany lowered their expectations a little, while retailers did so markedly.

In eastern German construction, the business climate deteriorated somewhat in January. The construction companies surveyed reported noticeably worse business than in December, but at the same time raised their expectations for future business performance marginally.

Joachim Ragnitz and Marcel Thum
Executive Directors, Dresden Branch of the ifo Institute

ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany

(Index, 2015 = 100, seasonally adjusted)

	01/23	02/23	03/23	04/23	05/23	06/23	07/23	08/23	09/23	10/23	11/23	12/23	01/24
Climate	92.5	94.6	95.3	96.3	96.0	93.5	91.7	90.5	89.7	90.0	90.6	88.6	89.0
Situation	97.3	99.5	99.5	98.6	99.1	97.9	95.1	92.9	92.2	91.7	92.7	90.7	90.7
Expectations	87.9	90.0	91.4	94.2	92.9	89.3	88.4	88.2	87.2	88.3	88.5	86.6	87.4

Source: ifo Business Survey.
© ifo Institute

ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany by Sector

(Balances, seasonally adjusted)

	01/23	02/23	03/23	04/23	05/23	06/23	07/23	08/23	09/23	10/23	11/23	12/23	01/24
Eastern Germany	-0.5	4.2	5.7	7.9	7.1	1.7	-2.1	-4.7	-6.5	-5.8	-4.5	-8.8	-7.9
Manufacturing	-4.2	1.5	0.6	6.9	3.4	-4.4	-8.4	-11.0	-6.2	-7.2	-7.5	-12.6	-8.7
Service sector	8.4	13.0	17.9	18.1	17.3	14.4	10.9	7.3	3.7	6.0	5.0	0.3	-0.1
Trade	-27.2	-21.1	-22.1	-21.4	-22.1	-23.1	-28.9	-29.1	-31.9	-26.6	-22.8	-29.9	-32.4
Construction	-19.7	-24.4	-14.1	-16.2	-16.6	-18.7	-20.7	-27.0	-31.8	-31.7	-25.6	-30.0	-32.1

Source: ifo Business Survey.
© ifo Institute

Chart: ifo Business Climate in Eastern Germany, ifo Business Survey, January 2024

Chart: Business Situation and Expectations Eastern Germany by Sector, ifo Business Survey, January 2024

The ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany is based on approx. 1,700 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesale, and retail. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterize their situation as “good,” “satisfactory,” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favorable,” “unchanged,” or “more unfavorable.” The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”; the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favorable” and “more unfavorable.” The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2015.