ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany Cools Slightly (February 2024)

The ifo Business Climate Index Eastern Germany saw a small decline in February. The barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany fell from 89.0 points in January to 88.5 points in February. The eastern German companies surveyed provided assessments of their business situation that were somewhat worse than the previous month and also lowered their business expectations slightly.

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In eastern German manufacturing, the business climate deteriorated marginally in February. The companies surveyed again assessed their current business situation as somewhat worse than in the previous month. Their expectations for future business development were noticeably lower.

In the eastern German service sector, the Business Climate Index fell a little. While the service providers surveyed were somewhat less satisfied with their current business situation, they raised their business expectations minimally compared to January.

In eastern German trade, the business climate deteriorated slightly overall in February. Retail companies in eastern Germany reported significantly worse business than in the previous month, but raised their expectations a little. Wholesalers, on the other hand, assessed their business as slightly less poor than in January, but lowered their expectations somewhat.

In eastern German construction, the business climate brightened notably in February. The construction companies surveyed stated that their business situation was now significantly better than in January. At the same time, however, they lowered their expectations for future business somewhat.

Joachim Ragnitz and Marcel Thum
Executive Directors, Dresden Branch of the ifo Institute

ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany

(Index, 2015 = 100, seasonally adjusted)

	02/23	03/23	04/23	05/23	06/23	07/23	08/23	09/23	10/23	11/23	12/23	01/24	02/24
Climate	94.6	95.4	96.3	96.0	93.5	91.7	90.6	89.7	90.0	90.6	88.6	89.0	88.5
Situation	99.5	99.5	98.6	99.1	97.9	95.1	92.9	92.2	91.7	92.7	90.7	90.7	90.5
Expectations	90.0	91.4	94.2	92.9	89.3	88.5	88.3	87.2	88.3	88.5	86.6	87.4	86.6

Source: ifo Business Survey.
© ifo Institute

ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany by Sector

(Balances, seasonally adjusted)

	02/23	03/23	04/23	05/23	06/23	07/23	08/23	09/23	10/23	11/23	12/23	01/24	02/24
Eastern Germany	4.2	5.7	7.8	7.0	1.7	-2.1	-4.6	-6.5	-5.8	-4.5	-8.8	-8.0	-9.0
Manufacturing	0.7	0.5	7.0	3.5	-4.2	-8.0	-10.8	-5.8	-7.0	-7.3	-12.7	-9.2	-11.5
Service sector	12.8	18.0	18.1	17.4	14.4	10.9	7.4	3.7	6.0	5.1	0.3	-0.1	-0.9
Trade	-20.8	-22.1	-21.4	-22.2	-23.1	-28.9	-29.1	-31.9	-26.6	-22.9	-30.0	-32.5	-32.8
Construction	-18.7	-14.7	-16.7	-17.0	-19.1	-21.1	-27.3	-32.1	-32.1	-26.1	-30.6	-33.4	-30.6

Source: ifo Business Survey.
© ifo Institute

Chart: ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany, ifo Business Survey, February 2024

Chart: Business Situation and Expectations Eastern Germany by Sector, ifo Business Survey, February 2024

The ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany is based on approx. 1,700 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesale, and retail. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterize their situation as “good,” “satisfactory,” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favorable,” “unchanged,” or “more unfavorable.” The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”; the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favorable” and “more unfavorable.” The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2015.