ifo Media Center
The ifo Institute invites you to participate in the discussion of interesting economic topics via the Internet. In our ifo Media Center a whole series of remarkable events are available and can be viewed in full length. We also record selected speeches and presentations given by employees or at events and make them available in our Media Center.
ifo Employment Barometer Down (December 2020)
German companies are becoming more cautious on the labor market. The ifo Employment Barometer fell to 95.5 points in December after measuring 96.7 points in November. The hard lockdown is making companies more reluctant to hire new people.
ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony, Winter 2020: Recovery of the Eastern German Economy Taking Longer than Expected
The ifo Institute expects economic output in Eastern Germany for the current year to slump by minus 4.4 percent. In Saxony, the decline is likely to be even more pronounced at minus 5.0 percent. The fall in gross domestic product will be somewhat less severe than in Germany as a whole (minus 5.1 percent). In the coming year, economic growth in Eastern Germany and Saxony is likely to see a strong recovery, with growth rates of 3.6 percent and 4.1 percent (Germany: plus 4.2 percent).
Eurozone Economic Outlook: Second Covid wave hampers recovery (December 2020)
After a sharp recovery in Q3, economic activity will decrease again in Q4 due to new lockdowns.
ifo Export Expectations Somewhat Brighter (December 2020)
Sentiment among German exporters has brightened somewhat. The ifo Export Expectations for manufacturing rose in December from minus 1.0 to plus 1.4 points. Germany’s export industry is cautious regarding the first quarter of 2021, as there are still too many uncertainties clouding the outlook, such as the unresolved Brexit deal.
ifo Business Climate Index Rises (December 2020)
Sentiment among German managers has improved. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 92.1 points in December from 90.9 points (seasonally adjusted) in November. Companies were more satisfied with their current business situation. They were also less skeptical about the coming six months. While the lockdown is hitting certain sectors hard, overall the German economy is showing resilience.
ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2020: The Coronavirus Strikes Back – Another Lockdown Slows the Economy for a Second Time
The economic recovery is likely to have come to a halt for the time being and gross domestic product is likely to shrink again in the final quarter. All in all, economic output is expected to slump by 5.1 percent in 2020. For the remainder of the forecast period, it has been assumed that the infection control measures in place since November will remain in force unchanged until March 2021 and will then be gradually eased. Against this background, price-adjusted gross domestic product is expected to grow by 4.2 percent in 2021.
ifo Business Climate Saxony Falls (November 2020)
The ifo Business Climate Index Saxony fell heavily in November. The barometer of business sentiment dropped from 94.8 to 91.2 points. Not only did the survey participants lower their assessments of the current situation very significantly, but their expectations for the coming six months also deteriorated noticeably. The second wave of coronavirus is definitely making itself felt in Saxony.
ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany Continues Downward Trend (November 2020)
Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany deteriorated further in November in a continuation of the downward trend that began in October. The ifo Business Climate Index for the region’s economy as a whole fell from 93.9 to 92.1 points. Business expectations and assessments of the current situation declined to the same extent.
ifo Employment Barometer Rises Slightly (November 2020)
Since October, the number of German companies considering hiring new staff has risen somewhat. The ifo Employment Barometer climbed to 96.7 points in November after measuring 96.4 points in October. For the time being, the second wave of coronavirus is not having major negative effects on the German labor market. However, developments vary widely by industry.
Germany: ifo Export Expectations Much Worse (November 2020)
Sentiment among German exporters has deteriorated markedly. The ifo Export Expectations for manufacturing fell from plus 7.0 points to minus 2.1 points in November. One factor in particular that is dragging down the export business is how intense the second wave of coronavirus sweeping across many European countries is.
ifo Business Climate Index Falls (November 2020)
Sentiment among German managers has deteriorated. The ifo Business Climate Index fell from 92.5 points (seasonally adjusted) in October to 90.7 points in November. The drop was due above all to companies’ considerably more pessimistic expectations. Their assessments of the current situation were also a little worse. Business uncertainty has risen. The second wave of coronavirus has interrupted Germany’s economic recovery.
US Election: Economists Have High Hopes for the New President Biden
On November 3, 2020, the United States went to the polls: Democrat Joe Biden won. In an election thriller, he prevailed against the Republican incumbent Donald Trump and next year will head the US government as the country’s 46th president.
Coronavirus and the Training Situation (3rd Quarter 2020)
The special questions of the survey in the third quarter of 2020 focused on in-house vocational training. Among other things, they addressed the situation during the coronavirus pandemic, but they also looked ahead to the 2020/2021 training year.
ifo Business Climate Saxony Stagnates at a Low Level (October 2020)
The ifo Business Climate Index for Saxony rose marginally in October from 94.9 points to 95.0 points. While the companies surveyed assessed their current situation as slightly more positive than in the previous month, their expectations for the coming six months deteriorated somewhat.
ifo Business Climate East Germany Falls (October 2020)
Sentiment among companies in Saxony deteriorated noticeably in October. The ifo Business Climate Index for the region’s economy as a whole fell from 95.7 to 94.0 points. This is mostly due to a clear drop in business expectations. Assessments of the current situation also fell slightly.
ifo Employment Barometer Rises Marginally (October 2020)
German companies are cautiously optimistic about hiring. The ifo Employment Barometer climbed to 96.5 points in October after measuring 96.3 points in September. This indicates growth in the workforce in the fourth quarter, but risks remain due to the coronavirus crisis.
ifo Export Expectations Much Worse (October 2020)
Optimism among German exporters has suffered a setback. In October, the ifo Export Expectations in manufacturing fell from 10.3 points to 6.6 points. Rising infection numbers around the world are cause for increasing concern in the export industry.
ifo Business Climate Index Falls (October 2020)
Sentiment among business leaders has clouded over. The ifo Business Climate Index fell from 93.2 points (seasonally adjusted) in September to 92.7 points in October. This is the first fall after five consecutive increases. Companies are considerably more skeptical regarding developments over the coming months. In contrast, they gave a slightly more positive assessment of their current situation than last month. In view of rising infection numbers, German business is becoming increasingly worried.
An Undesirable Side Effect of Coronavirus Measures: Zombies?
The German government has adopted far-reaching economic policy measures to mitigate the consequences of the coronavirus crisis. These appear to be working: in the second quarter of 2020, there were 8.86 percent fewer corporate insolvencies than in the same period last year despite the crisis (German Federal Statistical Office, 2020).
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2020: Recovery Loses Momentum – Economy and Politics Still Shaped by the Pandemic
After a 5.4 percent decline in gross domestic product this year, the institutes expect growth of only 4.7 percent next year and 2.7 percent in 2022.
