Social Contacts Are Leading Refugees from Ukraine to Go Mainly to Poland, Italy, and the Czech Republic

Poland, Italy, the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, and Hungary could become the most sought-after destination countries for Ukrainian refugees in the EU, according to calculations by the ifo Institute. The study examined the Facebook friendships of Ukrainians with people in other countries and the number of people living in each one. According to this analysis, 34.3 percent of refugees are likely to head for Poland, 12.4 for Italy, 12.0 for the Czech Republic, 11.9 for Germany, 4.7 for Spain, and 4.5 for Hungary, write Lea Best and Manuel Menkhoff from the ifo Institute in an article for ifo Schnelldienst.

If five million Ukrainians were to flee to the EU, about 600,000 of them would come to Germany. Considering Germany’s population weight of about 19 percent in the EU, this represents a below-average effect. Within Germany, refugees are distributed according to the Königstein distribution key, which is based on federal states’ population and economic strength. However, some German regions show above-average numbers of Facebook friendships with people in Ukraine: especially in Baden-Baden, Schweinfurt, Berlin and the surrounding area, as well as Frankfurt/Oder, Salzgitter, Memmingen, Schwäbisch-Hall, Nuremberg, Heidenheim, the Rhine-Neckar district (near Heidelberg), Hof, the Rhine-Lahn district (Bad Ems), Cloppenburg, and Ingolstadt. These relationships could lead to a disproportionate number of refugees in those areas.