Dr. Manuel Menkhoff

Research Director
ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys
Telefon:
+49(0)89/9224-1287
Personal Website
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Main Focus

Macroeconomics with Micro Data
Public Economics

Professional Experience

since 08/2025

Research Director, ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys

10/2020 – 08/2025

Junior Economist and Doctoral Student, ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys

10/2019 – 09/2020

Research Assistant, ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys

10/2018 – 09/2019

Research Assistant, LMU Munich, Department of Macroeconomics

05/2018 – 08/2018

Internship, Deutsche Bundesbank, Department of Financial Stability

03/2018 – 05/2018

Internship, German Institute for Economic Research, Feldforschung in Uganda

Recent Publications

Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms’ Subjective Beliefs
Rüdiger Bachmann, Kai Carstensen, Stefan Lautenbacher, Manuel Menkhoff, Martin Schneider
American Economic Review
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2026
Working Paper CESifo EN
The Persistent Effects of Adverse Shocks to Investment
Lea Best, Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff
CESifo Working Paper No. 12876
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2026
Working Paper CESifo EN
The Devil Is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of Firms
Manuel Menkhoff
CESifo Working Paper No. 11848
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    • Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms’ Subjective Beliefs
      Rüdiger Bachmann, Kai Carstensen, Stefan Lautenbacher, Manuel Menkhoff, Martin Schneider
      American Economic Review
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    • Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes
      Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff, Andreas Peichl, Paul Schüle
      American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 16 (4)
      194–222
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    • Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment Heterogeneity during the COVID-19 Pandemic
      Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff, Peter Zorn, Almut Balleer
      International Journal of Central Banking 2024, 20 (1)
      93-158
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    • 2026
      Working Paper CESifo EN
      The Persistent Effects of Adverse Shocks to Investment
      Lea Best, Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff
      CESifo Working Paper No. 12876
      Learn more
    • 2026
      Working Paper CESifo EN
      The Devil Is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of Firms
      Manuel Menkhoff
      CESifo Working Paper No. 11848
      Learn more
    • 2025
      Working Paper CESifo EN
      Belief Updating and AI Adoption: Experimental Evidence from Firms
      Manuel Menkhoff
      CESifo Working Paper No. 12291
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    • 2025
      Working Paper CESifo EN
      Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs
      Rüdiger Bachmann, Kai Carstensen, Stefan Lautenbacher, Manuel Menkhoff, Martin Schneider
      CESifo Working Paper No. 9394
      Learn more
    • 2025
      Working Paper CESifo EN
      The Impact of Interest: Firms' Investment Sensitivity to Interest Rates
      Lea Best, Benjamin Born, Manuel Menkhoff
      CESifo Working Paper No. 12167
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    • 2025
      Working Paper CESifo EN
      Firms’ Pass-Through Dynamics: A Survey Approach
      Isabel Gödl-Hanisch, Manuel Menkhoff
      CESifo Working Paper No. 10520
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    • 2023
      Working Paper ifo
      Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro
      Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, Manuel Menkhoff, Gernot J. Müller, Knut Niemann
      ifo Working Paper No. 400
      Learn more
    • 2022
      Working Paper CESifo EN
      Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro
      Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, Manuel Menkhoff, Gernot J. Müller, Knut Niemann
      CESifo Working Paper No. 10192
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    • 2022
      Working Paper EconPol EN
      Corporate Taxes Reduce Investment: New Evidence from Germany
      Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff, Andreas Peichl, Paul Schüle
      EconPol Policy Brief 44
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    • 2022
      Working Paper CESifo EN
      Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes
      Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff, Andreas Peichl, Paul Schüle
      CESifo Working Paper No. 9786
      Learn more
    • 2020
      Working Paper CESifo EN
      Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment during the Covid-19 Pandemic
      Almut Balleer, Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff, Peter Zorn
      CESifo Working Paper No. 8394
      Learn more

    • Geplante Unternehmensteuerreformen: Eine modellbasierte Simulation der Auswirkungen auf Investitionen und Steuereinnahmen
      Manuel Menkhoff, Andreas Peichl
      ifo Schnelldienst, 2025, 78, Nr. 08
      04-08
      Learn more
    • Die Nutzung von Künstlicher Intelligenz in der deutschen Wirtschaft
      Anna Kerkhof, Thomas Licht, Manuel Menkhoff, Klaus Wohlrabe
      ifo Schnelldienst, 2024, 77, Nr. 08
      39-43
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    • Wie passen Unternehmen ihre Investitionen an die gestiegenen Zinsen an?
      Lea Best, Benjamin Born, Manuel Menkhoff
      ifo Schnelldienst digital, 2024, 5, Nr. 3
      01-04
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    • The Quantitative Expectations Module of the ifo Business Survey
      Ruediger Bachmann, Kai Carstensen, Manuel Menkhoff, Martin Schneider
      in: Sauer, Stefan / Schasching, Moritz / Wohlrabe, Klaus (Hrsg.): Handbook of ifo Surveys
      209-217
      Learn more
    • Inwieweit geben Unternehmen die gestiegenen Einkaufspreise an ihre Kunden weiter?
      Isabel Gödl-Hanisch, Manuel Menkhoff
      ifo Schnelldienst, 2022, 75, Nr. 12
      32-34
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    • Frauen als Gründerinnen: Die Covid-Pandemie vergrößert den bestehenden Gender Gap
      Elena Herold, Carla Krolage, Manuel Menkhoff, Annika Oberhuber, Paul Schüle
      ifo Schnelldienst, 2022, 75, Nr. 10
      36-40
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    • 2022
      Article in Journal CESifo EN
      The EU’s Social Connectedness to Ukraine and Its Implications for the Distribution of Ukrainian Refugees
      Lea Best, Manuel Menkhoff
      CESifo Forum 23 (4)
      28-35
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    • Umsatzunsicherheit und Umsatzerwartungen deutscher Firmen zur Zeit des Ukraine-Kriegs: Gas und Gasausfall spielen eine eher geringe Rolle
      Rüdiger Bachmann, Kai Carstensen, Manuel Menkhoff, Martin Schneider
      ifo Schnelldienst, 2022, 75, Nr. 06
      33-36
      Learn more
    • Flüchtlingsströme infolge des russischen Angriffskrieges auf die Ukraine: Ihre Verteilung unter Berücksichtigung sozialer Kontakte
      Lea Best, Manuel Menkhoff
      ifo Schnelldienst, 2022, 75, Sonderausgabe April
      23-28
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    • ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2021: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Spannungsfeld zwischen Öffnungen und Lieferengpässen
      Timo Wollmershäuser, Przemyslaw Brandt, Christian Grimme, Max Lay, Robert Lehmann, Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff, Sascha Möhrle, Ann-Christin Rathje, Pauliina Sandqvist, Radek Šauer, Marc Stöckli, Klaus Wohlrabe
      ifo Schnelldienst, 2021, 74, Sonderausgabe Juni
      01-52
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    • Cities Hit Harder by the Economic Consequences of the Coronavirus Crisis
      Kevin Kloiber, Manuel Menkhoff, Sascha Möhrle, Andreas Peichl
      ifo Schnelldienst, 2021, 74, Nr. 05
      53-58
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    • ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2020: The Coronavirus Strikes Back – Another Lockdown Slows the Economy for a Second Time
      Timo Wollmershäuser, Marcell Göttert, Christian Grimme, Stefan Lautenbacher, Robert Lehmann, Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff, Sascha Möhrle, Ann-Christin Rathje, Magnus Reif, Pauliina Sandqvist, Radek Šauer, Marc Stöckli, Anna Wolf
      ifo Schnelldienst, 2020, 73, Sonderausgabe Dezember 2020
      03-61
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    • Supply or Demand? Findings from the Price-Setting Behavior of German Companies during the Coronavirus Crisis
      Almut Balleer, Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff, Peter Zorn
      ifo Schnelldienst, 2020, 73, Nr. 07
      13-16
      Learn more

    • Project
      Long-COVID? Medium-Term Impact of the Corona Virus Pandemic on Decisions of Firms
      Client:
      Deutsche Bundesbank
      Project duration:
      March 2022 - December 2024
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    • Project
      Structural Change in Rural Areas – Company Biographies
      Client:
      Bundesinstitut für Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung
      Project duration:
      September 2021 - October 2022
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10/2018 – 09/2020 M.Sc. in Quantitative Economics, LMU Munich

10/2014 – 09/2017 B.Sc. in Economics, Free University of Berlin

    • 14 Aug 2025
      Press release
      Permanent Declining Balance Depreciation Promotes Growth in Germany

      Declining balance depreciation, as is currently possible under the investment booster, should be introduced indefinitely in Germany. That is one of the results of a recent study by the ifo Institute, in which the economic effects of the planned corporate tax reforms (also known as “investment boosters”) in Germany were simulated. “Both the planned reduction in corporation tax and the introduction of declining balance depreciation will increase the capital stock and hence investment in the long term,” says Andreas Peichl, Director of the ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys and co-author of the study.

      Learn more
    • 7 Mar 2024
      Press release
      Companies cut investments by 8.4% because of higher interest rates

      Over the past 18 months, companies in Germany have reduced their planned investments by an average of 8.4% due to higher interest rates. This is a finding from the ifo Business Survey of December 2023, which has now been published in ifo Schnelldienst. “Companies are responding to higher interest rates by investing significantly less in energy efficiency and renewables. They are also reducing their research and development spending,” says ifo researcher Manuel Menkhoff.

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    • 21 Nov 2022
      Press release
      German Companies Pass On Increased Costs to Customers with a Time Lag

      German companies are passing on their higher purchase prices to their customers, but slowly and not in full. This is the finding of an ifo Institute survey, according to which companies have passed on just 34 percent of their purchase price increases over the past few months. They plan to raise this to 50 percent by April. “This is likely to lead to further inflationary pressure on consumer prices in the coming months,” says ifo researcher Manuel Menkhoff. The companies themselves report that weak demand, competitive pressure, and long-term contracts are holding them back from raising prices.

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