ifo Export Expectations Rise Slightly (August 2019)
The mood among German exporters has brightened somewhat. The ifo Export Expectations in manufacturing rose to -2.1 balance points in August, up from -2.7 balance points in July. This increase is due to companies exporting to the United Kingdom. The threat of a hard Brexit is encouraging UK firms to import much earlier than otherwise. Apart from this positive effect, the trade war continues to weigh on German exporters.
In the automotive sector, export expectations have recovered somewhat after the setbacks of the previous months. However, those surveyed continue to expect no growth. The chemical industry, on the other hand, looks to the coming months with optimism, with companies expecting noticeable growth in international business. The same applies to the furniture industry. By contrast, concern is growing in mechanical engineering. In the metal industry, too, the export business continues to decline.
Clemens Fuest, President of the ifo Institute
