Situation in the German Automotive Industry Worsens
The situation in the German automotive industry has worsened. The ifo indicator slid to 9.6 points in November, down from 17.4 points in October. The downward trend is primarily due to the situation for suppliers. “Automotive suppliers gave much bleaker assessments of their current situation than manufacturers,” says Oliver Falck, Director of the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies. The index for suppliers fell to minus 23.0 points.
Business for manufacturers continues to be very good; the situation indicator fell slightly to a still healthy 38.4 points, down from 41.4 points in October. “Business is being driven above all by international sales markets,” Falck says. The export indicator jumped to 52.5 points, up from 33.8 points in October. At 91.2 points, the production outlook is excellent. “However, all manufacturers were still complaining about supply shortages,” Falck adds. Manufacturers are barely looking to reduce headcount, but neither do they want to hire new staff; this indicator remains virtually unchanged at minus 7 points.
For suppliers, however, the situation has turned much less favorable: their index dropped from plus 8.9 points in October to minus 23.0 points. The order situation remains tight; this indicator slipped 3.5 points. They aren’t expecting any help from the export business either: this index fell to 0.5 points, down from 2.4 points in October. Production expectations remain cautious at plus 0.9 points, up from minus 2.8 points in October. “To cope with the transition to electromobility, suppliers need to build up new skills, which is why they’re still looking to recruit,” Falck explains. The indicator fell in November, but remains positive at 15.1 points, down from 24.0 points in October.
Publication (in German)
Transformation in the Automotive Industry – What Skills Are Needed?
ifo Institut, München, 2021
ifo Schnelldienst digital, 2021, 2, Nr. 12, 01-05