Situation in the German Automotive Industry Worsens
The situation in the German automotive industry has darkened for five months in a row. The corresponding balance fell to minus 1 point in December, down from plus 7.9 points in November. “This further worsening is driven by manufacturers, not suppliers,” says Oliver Falck, Director of the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies. The situation indicator for manufacturers plunged to 15.6 points, down from 36.5 points in November.
All manufacturers continue to be affected by supply bottlenecks for intermediate products. Their international business seems to be faltering, with the balance for export expectations dropping to 28.1 points, down from 51.1 points in October. “Manufacturers’ expectations are also no longer so rosy,” Falck says. Their business expectations plummeted from 42.7 points to 18.2 points in December.
The situation that manufacturers are in is having a direct impact on suppliers, for whom current business remains poor. While their situation indicator did rise, from minus 21.7 points in November to minus 13.6 points, it remains deep in negative territory. Suppliers’ business expectations are more pessimistic than they have been for almost two years. This indicator fell from minus 24.8 points to minus 28.6 points in December. “Recent announcements by automakers that they are looking to further expand their involvement in China is certainly depressing the mood of medium-sized suppliers in particular, who are heavily dependent on automotive production in Germany,” Falck adds.
Publication
Transformation in the Automotive Industry – What Skills Are Needed?
ifo Institut, München, 2021
ifo Schnelldienst digital, 2021, 2, Nr. 12, 01-05