ifo Dresden: “Excess Mortality” Well Above Average in Saxony and Thuringia in the Second Half of 2021

In the second half of 2021, excess mortality reached a notable level in the German federal states of Saxony and Thuringia. They saw about 13 percent more deaths than would have been expected based on their age structure. In contrast, some other Länder, such as Schleswig-Holstein and Berlin, did not experience unusually high mortality over the same period. “It is noticeable that the higher a federal state’s vaccination rate, the lower its excess mortality in the second half of 2021,” says Marcel Thum, Director of the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch.

The study is based on a special analysis of deaths as reported by the German Federal Statistical Office. Based on the age- and sex-specific deaths in each state between 2016 and 2019, the number of deaths expected under normal conditions was calculated for 2020 and 2021. If in fact more deaths occurred, there was “excess mortality” in the respective state. The second half of 2021 was chosen as the study period because, starting in that summer, anyone who wanted to be vaccinated against the coronavirus could receive at least an initial vaccination. From the second to the fourth quarter of 2020, when vaccination was not available, Saxony had significant excess mortality, but there was no significant difference among the other states.