Covid-19 Initially Inhibited Job Changes in Germany
The coronavirus pandemic initially made it more difficult for people in Germany to change jobs in 2020. This is the finding of research conducted at the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch. “In crises, companies often put their hiring plans on ice,” says ifo economist Niels Gillmann. “This makes it harder for employees to change jobs.” What’s more, Gillmann says, the short-time work allowance led companies to hold on to their employees despite the crisis. Exceptions were jobs in food and hospitality, where mobility increased in 2020. Many employees in Saxony took up jobs in transport and logistics as well as in trade.
In 2021, the situation returned to normal, with more people changing jobs again. The crisis hardly altered the pattern of job changes among the different professions. “Job changes often require thorough preparation and training. So in the short term, there were no structural changes in the German labor market,” Gillmann says. “This makes it all the more important for employees to undergo regular training, so they can quickly find a new job if worse comes to worst.”
The article entitled “Job Mobility Before and During the Coronavirus Pandemic” by Niels Gillmann, Andreas Maas (German Federal Employment Agency), and Antje Weyh (Institute for Employment Research) was published today in issue 01/2023 of the ifo Dresden berichtet magazine.
Berufliche Mobilität vor und während der Corona-Pandemie
ifo Institut, Dresden, 2023
ifo Dresden berichtet, 2023, 30, Nr. 1, 03-10
All the magazine articles (available in German):
Job Mobility Before and During the Coronavirus Pandemic
The coronavirus pandemic led to the biggest economic crisis since the global financial crisis of 2008. In 2020, it was said that the pandemic would lead to a reallocation shock on the labor market, that is, a workforce redistribution from low-productivity jobs to high-productivity jobs. This article looks at job mobility in Germany and Saxony in the pandemic years 2020 and 2021. We show that while there was upheaval in 2020, the labor market returned almost to normal as early as 2021. Instead of a reallocation, the coronavirus pandemic reinforced already existing labor market trends. There is thus no reason to expect a reallocation shock – at least not in Germany and Saxony.
Commute to Stay? Relocations and Commuting in Germany
Over recent decades, eastern Germany has undergone a massive westward exodus. Increasingly, this outflow of large parts of the population is also weakening the economy by causing a shortage of skilled workers. While there has been less emigration from this region in recent years, the number of outward commuters has risen in eastern German districts. This article raises the question of whether the higher number of commuters has prevented a further population exodus.
ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony, Winter 2022: Economy Defies Turbulence
In 2022, economic output in eastern Germany appears to have grown by 2.1 percent; in Saxony, gross domestic product appears to have seen weaker growth of 1.7 percent (Germany: 1.8 percent). In the current year, economic output in eastern Germany is expected to fall –0.2 percent and stagnate in Saxony (Germany: –0.1 percent).
Shortage of Skilled Workers Boosts Modernization
The growing labor shortage is generally considered a threat to prosperity in Germany. Accordingly, policymakers’ countermeasures tend to focus on attracting new workers rather than reducing the demand for labor. This commentary thus argues for a change of perspective: labor shortage should be seen as an opportunity to modernize the German economy.
Presentation of Indicators for the Observation of the Labor Market in Saxony
This article presents the (high-frequency) indicators for observing labor market developments. It supplements the already established indicators – the German Federal Employment Agency’s BA-X labor market index and the ifo Employment Barometer – with high-frequency indicators from indeed.com.
