ifo Institute / EconPol Europe: Russia Circumventing Sanctions via CIS Countries and Turkey
Russia is circumventing sanctions to obtain Western goods primarily via the CIS countries in Central Asia and Turkey, according to a study by the ifo Institute on trade data for sanctioned goods. The study examined goods that are critical to the Russian economy or important for the military industry, such as vehicles and ball and roller bearings. “In 2022, exports to Russia from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkey of goods critical to the Russian economy or important for the military industry were 50 times higher than those countries’ exports of general goods to all destination countries in 2019. This indicates a very high probability of sanctions evasion,” says Feodora Teti, Deputy Director of the ifo Center for International Economics.
Since March 2022, 8 percent of all Russian imports of goods that are important for Russian weapons systems and military development have come from the CIS countries. Regarding goods that are critical to the Russian economy, 3 percent of all imports to Russia come from the CIS countries. “Russia’s most important trading partner is still China, which supplies 51 percent of imported goods that are important for Russia’s economy or military industry. However, it seems that circumvention of sanctions via China is less widespread,” Teti says. The sharp rise in China’s share of imports to Russia can also be explained, at least partially, by increased domestic production in China.
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This report was commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Protection or the Minister.
