Dr. Feodora Teti

It’s widely accepted that the decision of the UK to leave the EU imposes a key challenge for trade relations. The outcome of trade negotiations, which were resumed in an hour-long telephone call on Thursday after a week-long

Russia is circumventing sanctions to obtain Western goods primarily via the CIS countries in Central Asia and Turkey, according to a study by the ifo Institute on trade data for sanctioned goods. The study examined goods that are critical to the Russian economy or important for the military industry, such as vehicles and ball and roller bearings. “In 2022, exports to Russia from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkey of goods critical to the Russian economy or important for the military industry were 50 times higher than those countries’ exports of general goods to all destination countries in 2019. This indicates a very high probability of sanctions evasion,” says Feodora Teti, Deputy Director of the ifo Center for International Economics.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine in spring 2022, EU exports to Russia have fallen to 37 percent of their prewar level. “One reason for the still high volume of exports to Russia is that only 32 percent of all products from the EU are subject to sanctions. In the case of luxury goods, for example, there are sanctions against exports of champagne to Russia, but not of prosecco,” says Feodora Teti, Deputy Director of the ifo Center for International Economics. In addition, it is possible to deliver many of EU goods subject to sanctions to Russia indirectly via third countries, as evaluations of the new ifo sanctions database suggest.

Depuis l’invasion de l’Ukraine au printemps 2022, les exportations de l’Union européenne à destination de la Russie ont reculé, atteignant 37 % de leur niveau d’avant-guerre. « Le volume encore élevé des exportations vers la Russie s’explique par le fait que seuls 32 % des produits en provenance de l’UE font l’objet de sanctions. Dans le domaine des produits de luxe, par exemple, les exportations de Champagne sont interdites, mais pas celles de Prosecco », explique Feodora Teti, directrice adjointe du Centre d’économie internationale de l’Institut ifo. Par ailleurs, il semble que de nombreuses marchandises européennes sanctionnées soient livrées indirectement à la Russie par l’intermédiaire de pays tiers. C’est ce qui ressort de l’étude des nouvelles données de l’ifo sur les sanctions.

The RCEP free trade agreement between 14 Asia-Pacific countries and China is putting the EU and the US under pressure to act. “The EU should strengthen its trade relations with Asian partners,” write ifo authors Feodora Teti and Hannah-Maria Hildenbrand in an article for ifo Schnelldienst. “While the EU has already concluded trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, its negotiations with Australia and New Zealand, and with the ten ASEAN countries, are progressing slowly. The EU and China also reached an agreement in principle on a comprehensive investment deal at the end of 2020, but a trade agreement is currently a distant wish.” China is currently discussing its new five-year plan.