Impact of Digitalisation on the Labour Market
Project period: October 2017 - September 2018
Research Areas:
Tasks
The study will be conducted within a framework agreement with the Chamber of Commerce and Industry for Munich and Upper Bavaria to provide objective, scientifically-based economic advisory work.
The study examines the impact of digitalisation - including the increasing use of information and communication technology in the value-added process - in the labour market.
Methods
- Literature review: Current state of empirical economic research on the current effects and prognoses of future labour market effects of digitalisation.
- Empirical analyses on the long-term development of employment and wages by occupation in Germany and Bavaria.
- Extrapolation of the past trends and projections into the future until 2030.
Data and other Sources
Administrative data of the Federal Employment Agency on employment and wages.
Results
Empirical analyses on the long-term development of employment and wages by occupation in Germany and Bavaria confirm existing findings that overall employment has not changed dramatically, but there are structural shifts. In the period from 1999 to 2016 nationwide, the so-called routine occupations, i.e. occupations that contain many clearly defined tasks that are easier to automate, have decreased by a total of 4.2%, while non-routine occupations have grown by 7.3%. In Bavaria, where employment growth was higher overall, employment in non-routine occupations has risen by 22.5%, compared to 5.2% in routine occupations. Within Bavaria, there are differences in the structure and the development of employment.
These past trends are extrapolated in the next step and projected into the future until 2030. Also for 2030, projected total employment is not expected to change much for Germany (between -4.8% and 5.5%, depending on the model), while the projections for Bavaria are more positive and mostly show employment growth (depending on the model between 1.6% and 13.5%). However, the positive development of employment may not hide the fact that significant structural shifts will continue across occupations.
Publication (in German)
A short version of the study can be found on the website of the IHK for Munich and Upper Bavaria.
Falck, Oliver, Nina Czernich, Thomas Fackler and Anita Fichtl, Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung auf den Arbeitsmarkt, Impulse für die Wirtschaftspolitik, IHK für München und Oberbayern, München, 2018, 01–90 | PDF Download
