Regional Risk and Resilience Factors – An Analysis for Germany

Tasks

How resilient are regions with regard to different exogenous shocks? This study investigated which factors may be responsible for regions recovering differently well from shocks. Using the financial crisis, the natural disaster storm "Lothar" as well as local labor market shocks, we examine how resilient German counties are to different shocks.

The development of an empirical analysis concept, with the help of the scientific literature, as well as the definition of the term resilience form the basis of the study. The research shows that German counties can be classified as predominantly resilient, both against the backdrop of short-term shocks, in the case of natural disasters and major labor market changes, and with regard to the medium-term financial crisis.

Methods

We develop an empirical analysis concept and define the concept resilience on which our study is based. From the scientific literature we derive the indicators that should be included in our empirical model. We estimate this model by machine learning algorithms to investigate which factors contribute to how a region recovers from an exogenous shock.

Data and other sources

• VGR der Länder
• INKAR Datenbank des BBSR
• Regionaldatenbank der Statistischen Ämter von Bund und Ländern
• Eurostat