Structural Change in Rural Areas
Project period: October 2021 – November 2022
Research Areas:
Tasks
Economic structural change leads to profound upheavals. Due to different economic and socio-demographic characteristics, individual regions in Germany are affected by structural change with varying intensity. Rural areas in particular are facing major challenges. This report takes a comprehensive look at the opportunities and risks of structural change at the regional level and shows ways of optimally exploiting the potential of structural change while reducing the risks.
Methods
A special feature of the report is that it records the economic structural strength of districts in one indicator based on scientifically established econometrical methodology. This indicator is linked to past developments in industries and sectors, current demographic and infrastructural conditions, and the opportunities and risks of future megatrends. The result is a comprehensive picture of structural change that not only differentiates between rural and urban counties, but also connect the past to the future. The aggregated analyses are underpinned by detailed case studies of individual districts, which capture the challenges as well as structural policy measures to counter structural change. At the same time, the toolbox of regional policy instruments is evaluated on the basis of scientific literature.
Data and other sources
INKAR regional database,
infas360,
Interviews with local leaders.
Results
Four mega trends (climate, energy, globalization and digitalization) will have a significant impact on structural change in Germany in the future. These mega trends affect individual counties differently depending on their industry composition. Overall, rural districts are more dependent on the mega trends than urban districts due to their specialization in individual sectors of the economy. They could therefore be more strongly influenced by future structural change processes. Among rural counties, it is the economically (still) strong counties that will be particularly affected. In combination with demographic trends, the situation is likely to be particularly severe where a sharply declining population meets a high vulnerability of the local economy.
