Project

Adaptation and Integration Strategies of Refugees from Ukraine in Germany: Between Work and Social Help

Client: internal
Project period: May 2022 - September 2023
Research Areas:
Project team: Panu Poutvaara, Tetyana Panchenko

Tasks

Many people from Ukraine, especially women and children, are currently fleeing war, which was unexpected for many, was triggered by Russia against Ukraine on February 24, 2022.   Many of them remain in bordering countries, while some go to other European countries, especially those with a large Ukrainian diaspora.  Germany is the most popular of the latter countries. The number of inflows from Ukraine after Feb. 24, 2022 is steadily increasing and already exceeds the number of Ukrainians living in Germany before the war many times over. For many people, Germany, like other host countries, is only a temporary place of residence to decide what to do next: stay in the host country, continue their journey or return.

People make decisions regarding the duration and destination country of flight under the influence of many factors and against a background of utmost uncertainty and ambiguity. In order to understand the intentions of refugee Ukrainians regarding the duration and shape of their stay in the host country, it is important to analyze which factors influence these decisions, as well as the socio-demographic profile and other characteristics of those who make these decisions. To this end, we are conducting a qualitative-quantitative study, the main objectives of which are:

  1. To analyze the causes and motives of migrants regarding the choice of the country of residence with special attention to the specific everyday practice of adaptation.
  2. To investigate the influence of the various decision-making factors such as family, social networks, professional fulfillment, career, income and, of course, the duration of the war, in the decision-making process.
  3. To create a socio-demographic profile of refugee Ukrainians in Germany to assess their potential on the German labor market and the possible burden on the German social system. 
  4. To investigate the plans and intentions of Ukrainian refugees in Germany to find answers to the questions: how many of the Ukrainians will stay in Germany, return to Ukraine or move to another country and how many are willing to integrate into the German labor market. 
  5. To examine the dynamics of changes in the intention of refugees from Ukraine to stay and work in Germany over time and identify factors influencing these changes.
  6. To identify challenges, difficulties, and incentives for integration into the German labor market, both for refugees from Ukraine as a whole and for representatives of individual occupational groups.

Methods

  • Conducting qualitative in-depth interviews with Ukrainian refugees in Germany and analyzing them with the aim of gaining a better understanding of the unexpected migration processes by reconstructing and typifying/typologizing the specific cases based on the interview texts.  
  • Conducting the quantitative online survey with refugee Ukrainians in Germany and its analysis with the aim to investigate different impacts and consequences of the flight movement from Ukraine. 
  • As an additional tool, we also conduct offline survey in the meeting places of refugees from Ukraine (German courses, events, etc.) to recruit participants for a quality interview and supplement the collected data with an online survey. 
  • As further additional tools we use content analysis of answers to open questions, analysis of posts in social networks and comments under links of online surveys.

Data and other sources

Interview texts, online survey results and offline survey results, content of the thematic comment and posting on social networks.

Results

First wave of the quantitative online survey was conducted from May 23 to June 6, 2022 in social networks and meeting places of refugees from Ukraine. A total of 936 people were surveyed.  

Results: https://www.ifo.de/en/publications/2022/monograph-authorship/adaptation-and-intergration-strategies-refegee-ukraine

Second wave of the quantitative online survey was conducted from 23 September to 29 October 2022 on social networks. A total of 1462 people were surveyed.

Results: https://www.ifo.de/sites/default/files/2023-02/2023-panchenko-integration-sperspektiven-gefluechtet-deutschland.pdf

Third wave of the quantitative online survey was conducted from 26 January to 9 March 2023 on social networks. A total of 1393 people were surveyed

Publikationen

Media Center – 21 February 2023
Dr. Yvonne Giesing
Dr. Tetyana Panchenko

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has driven many people from their homes - over 7 million in total. Germany has taken in the most after Poland. What are the plans, hopes and expectations of Ukrainian refugees in Germany? What are the consequences and opportunities for the German economy and society?

Press release — 16 November 2022

One-fifth of the refugees who have settled in Germany after fleeing Ukraine report that they have found employment. This is a finding from a survey the ifo Institute conducted among 1,461 Ukrainian refugees for the EconPol Europe research network. Of those employed, over half say they are working below their formal qualifications. “The willingness of Ukrainian refugees to work is very high. Only very few are not interested in finding a job,” says ifo researcher Tetyana Panchenko.

Article in Journal
Tetyana Panchenko
ifo Institut, München, 2022
ifo Schnelldienst, 2022, 75, Nr. 11, 58-62
Working Paper
Tetyana Panchenko, Panu Poutvaara
2022
EconPol Policy Brief 46
Monograph (Authorship)
Yvonne Giesing, Tetyana Panchenko, Panu Poutvaara
ifo Institut, München, 2022
ifo Forschungsberichte / 135
Article in Journal
Yvonne Giesing, Tetyana Panchenko, Panu Poutvaara
ifo Institut, München, 2022
ifo Schnelldienst, 2022, 75, Nr. 09, 42-49
Article in Journal
Tetyana Panchenko
ifo Institute, Munich, 2022
CESifo Forum 23 (4), 67-75
Press release — 21 July 2022

A full 90 percent of refugees from Ukraine want to get a job in Germany. This is the finding of a survey the ifo Institute conducted of 936 Ukrainians. Of that group, 42 percent are already working in their chosen profession or are looking for jobs that match their qualifications. About 32 percent are also willing to work below their qualifications. Some 16 percent consider their opportunities on the German labor market to be far and few between, while only 10 percent see no chance of finding work or have no interest in doing so.