Expert Report Energy and Economic Crisis – Crisis Monitoring

Tasks

The aim of the project was the identification of suitable indicators for monitoring the current development of the Saxon economy in the energy crisis. Due to the high number of causal links and interdependencies in the economy, it was necessary to compile appropriate early indicators from different areas of the economy. In the sense of an "early warning system", they should both illuminate the state of the Saxon economy at the current edge and give indications of future developments.

Methods

The analysis of the crisis indicators was preceded by a stocktaking. This showed the initial situation Saxony was in before the crisis and provided context for interpreting the subsequent crisis indicators. Additionally, various crisis indicators were determined and evaluated. Complementary to the already known official statistics, innovative and high-frequency indicators were also used, such as the hourly electricity and gas consumption, the consumption behavior of private households or the daily online job stock, in order to capture the development on the labor market.

Data and other sources

Federal Statistical Office, Federal Employment Agency, Deutsche Bundesbank, indeed.com, Creditreform, MasterCard, Sachsenenergie, Yahoo Finance, ifo Economic Surveys, EU Commission.

Results

Indicators were identified in the areas of real economic development, price development, the financial situation of companies, labour market development, the situation of households and the electricity and gas markets, which paint an up-to-date picture of the Saxon economy with the highest possible frequency and the shortest possible time lag. The selected indicators are regularly updated over the winter in order to identify possible trends in Saxony's economic development at an early stage.