Trade Balance Deficit in Bavaria

Tasks

The study is being conducted as part of a contract with the Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, which provides independent, scientifically sound economic advice: Details.

While the value of Bavaria's exports of goods exceeded imports in previous decades, there has been a shift in favor of an import surplus since 2019. Since then, Bavaria's trade balance deficithas increased. The study addresses the following questions:

• What is the cause of the transition from a (goods) export surplus to an export deficit in Bavaria?
• Can service exports compensate for the goods export deficit in the long term?
• What are the consequences of these findings for economic policy?
• Where should economic policy start?
• And to what extent is it realistic and desirable to achieve export surpluses again?