ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany: Index Stabilizes at a Low Level (October 2022)
Sentiment among companies in Saxony improved slightly in October. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose to 86.2 points, up from 85.2 points in September. The companies surveyed lowered their assessments of the current situation somewhat while they raised their expectations for the next six months considerably.
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In eastern German manufacturing, the business climate brightened substantially in October. The main reason for this was a major improvement in expectations. The current business situation was also assessed by the manufacturing companies surveyed as somewhat better than in the previous month.
In the eastern German service sector, sentiment in October deteriorated a bit. Compared to the previous month, companies’ assessments of the current situation took a plunge, while business expectations recovered significantly.
In eastern German trade, the sentiment barometer regained ground in October. The trading businesses surveyed assessed both their current situation and their outlook as better than a month earlier. Current business in particular recorded a strong recovery.
In eastern German construction, the business climate turned a lot cooler in October. The construction companies surveyed scaled back their assessments of the current situation noticeably and their business expectations declined slightly.
Joachim Ragnitz and Marcel Thum
Executive Directors, Dresden Branch of the ifo Institute
ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany
(Index, 2015 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
| 10/21 | 11/21 | 12/21 | 01/22 | 02/22 | 03/22 | 04/22 | 05/22 | 06/22 | 07/22 | 08/22 | 09/22 | 10/22 | |
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| Expectations |
Source: ifo Business Survey.
© ifo Institute
ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany by Sector
(Balances, seasonally adjusted)
| 10/21 | 11/21 | 12/21 | 01/22 | 02/22 | 03/22 | 04/22 | 05/22 | 06/22 | 07/22 | 08/22 | 09/22 | 10/22 | |
| Eastern Germany | |||||||||||||
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| Construction |
Source: ifo Business Survey.
© ifo Institute
The ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany is based on approx. 1,700 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesale, and retail. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterize their situation as “good,” “satisfactory,” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favorable,” “unchanged,” or “more unfavorable.” The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”; the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favorable” and “more unfavorable.” The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2015.
