ifo Media Center
The ifo Institute invites you to participate in the discussion of interesting economic topics via the Internet. In our ifo Media Center a whole series of remarkable events are available and can be viewed in full length. We also record selected speeches and presentations given by employees or at events and make them available in our Media Center.
ifo Employment Barometer Falls (November 2023)
The willingness among companies in Germany to hire new staff has decreased slightly. The ifo Employment Barometer fell to 95.9 points in November, down from 96.2 points in October. “With a solid foundation for recovery still not in sight, companies are putting off hiring new staff,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Many companies continue to complain about a lack of new orders.”
Germany’s Export Expectations Improve Slightly (November 2023)
Sentiment in the German export industry has improved. The ifo Export Expectations rose to minus 3.8 points in November, up from minus 6.3 points in October. “However, the export economy still isn’t managing to develop any momentum,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “German companies have yet to benefit much from the economic upswing in many countries.”
Skills Shortage Has a Major Impact on Companies’ HR Strategies (4th Quarter 2023)
What does HR planning look like in companies? This question was the focus of the Randstad-ifo Personnel Manager Survey in the fourth quarter of 2023. The answer is difficult: in addition to the current gloomy economic outlook, a number of other economic and political issues are currently posing a considerable challenge for companies, not least the shortage of applicants and skilled workers, which companies are increasingly feeling and which is having the greatest impact on HR strategy.
ifo Business Climate Index Rises (November 2023)
Sentiment among German companies has improved slightly. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 87.3 points in November, up from 86.9 points in October. This is its third consecutive increase. Companies assessed their current business situation as somewhat better. Expectations for the coming months were also less pessimistic. The German economy is stabilizing, albeit at a low level.
Most German Companies Want to Retain Current Arrangements for Working from Home
Most companies in Germany, 84%, want to keep their current rules on working from home, finds an ifo Institute survey. “This applies to all sectors of the economy and to small, medium-sized, and large companies alike,” says ifo researcher Simon Krause. Only 8% of companies would like to change their rules on working from home. “Despite the public debate about returning to the office, working from home has become firmly established in the working world,” Krause adds.
Material Shortages Noticeably Better in German Manufacturing
German manufacturing is seeing a considerable reduction in material shortages. In October, 18.2% of the companies surveyed reported shortages, down from 24.0% in September. This is a finding from the ifo Institute’s latest survey. “Things are almost back to pre-crisis levels,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Companies should plan now for future shortages, diversify their supply chains, and increase inventory levels.”
Economic Experts Survey: Confidence in Asia and Africa, Skepticism in Europe and America (3rd Quarter 2023)
In the third quarter of 2023, the ability to overcome economic policy challenges is viewed much more critically than in the previous quarter, particularly in Europe and North and South America. A similar picture can also be seen in the assessment of political performance in these regions. This contrasts with large parts of Asia and Africa, where both economic policy and the political situation are perceived to have improved.
Business at Germany’s Retailers Somewhat Worse
The business situation for Germany’s retailers has deteriorated slightly once again. The indicator fell from -9.8 points* in September to -13.4 points in October. Expectations for the coming months have improved a little, but remain at a low level. “This means that many retailers remain uncertain about how they will fare going into the Christmas season,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner.
Business Climate in Germany’s Chemical Industry Improves Marginally
The business climate indicator for the German chemical industry rose only a little in October. It remained in negative territory at -15.3 points, up from -18.7 points* in September. “Germany’s chemical industry continues to face an extremely challenging business environment,” says industry expert Anna Wolf of the ifo Institute.
Order Cancellations in German Residential Construction Reach a New High
Germany’s wave of cancellations in residential construction continues. In October, 22.2% of companies reported canceled projects, up from 21.4% in the previous month. “It’s getting worse all the time, with more and more projects failing due to higher interest rates and elevated construction prices,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “In residential construction, new business remains very low and companies’ order backlogs are diminishing.”
ifo Business Climate Index Saxony Jumps Higher (October 2023)
The business climate in Saxony improved significantly in October. The sentiment barometer for the Saxon economy rose to 91.1 points, 2.9 points higher than it was the previous month. Although the Saxon companies surveyed assessed their current business situation as only somewhat better overall than in September, they raised their business expectations considerably.
Business Climate for Germany’s Self-Employed Clouds Over
The business climate for Germany’s self-employed has deteriorated, finds the latest ifo survey for this segment (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”). The index fell to -16.2 points* in October, down from -14.4 points* in September. “In September, it seemed as though things were looking up for the self-employed. October failed to bear this out,” says ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber. “The situation for the self-employed remains tense.”
ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany Treads Water (October 2023)
The ifo Business Climate Index for eastern Germany rose minimally in October. The barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany improved by 0.1 point to 89.9 points. While the eastern German companies surveyed assessed their current situation as slightly worse, they also raised their business expectations a little.
Business Climate in Germany’s Automotive Industry Cools
The business climate in Germany’s automotive industry has cooled slightly. In October, the indicator fell to -16.1 points, down from -14.6 points* in September. “Companies in Germany’s automotive industry rate their current business situation as significantly worse than in the previous month,” says Anita Wölfl, a specialist at the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies.
Fewer Companies in Germany Expect Price Increases
In Germany, fewer companies are expecting prices to rise in the months ahead. Price expectations fell to 15.3 points in October, down from 15.7 points* in September. The most noticeable drop was in consumer-related industries. Among food retailers, the balance fell from 53.0 points* to 41.6 points, among other retailers from 31.8 points* to 28.3 points, and among consumer-related service providers from 35.1 points* to 29.3 points. “This means that consumer prices will still continue to rise. However, the pace will ease off and with it inflation,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
ifo Employment Barometer Rises (October 2023)
Companies in Germany are once again becoming more willing to hire new staff. The ifo Employment Barometer rose to 96.2 points in October, up from 95.8 points in September. “Nevertheless, companies continue to be cautious about making new hires,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “The lack of new orders is still having a negative effect.”
Germany’s Export Expectations Improve Slightly (October 2023)
Sentiment in the German export industry has brightened a little. The ifo Export Expectations rose to -6.9 points in October, up from -10.8 points in September. “However, Germany’s export economy is still being rather cautious looking ahead,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Many companies are experiencing a drop in competitiveness in international markets.”
ifo Business Climate Index Rises (October 2023)
Sentiment in the German economy has improved. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 86.9 points in October, up from 85.8 points (Seasonally adjusted) in September. Companies are somewhat more satisfied with their current business. In addition, managers were less pessimistic in their view of the coming months. Germany’s economy can see a silver lining ahead.
German Banks More Reluctant to Lend
It is becoming more difficult for companies in Germany to obtain new loans. In September, 29.2% of companies in ongoing credit negotiations reported restraint on the part of banks. In June, that figure was only 21.3%. “Banks are gradually increasing interest rates on loans and are more reluctant to grant them,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
Economic Experts Survey: Economists Expect Inflation to Fall Worldwide (Q3 2023)
How are economists’ expectations for future price developments evolving worldwide? Can a decline in inflation expectations be observed? The latest survey of the Economic Experts Survey (EES) of the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy examines inflation expectations of economists on a global level. The result: although inflation expectations worldwide remain well above central banks’ inflation target, a further decline in the expected inflation rate for 2023 compared with previous quarters is evident.
