ifo Media Center
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Business Climate for Germany’s Self-Employed Improves
The business climate for the self-employed in Germany improved slightly at the end of the year, finds the latest ifo survey for this segment (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”). The index rose to -17.5 points* in December, up from -18.8 points* in November. “It’s too early to talk of a trend reversal,” says ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber. “The self-employed are currently a long way from an economic recovery.”
Economic Experts Survey: Decline in Inflation Expected in the New Year (Q4 2023)
How are economists’ expectations for future price developments evolving worldwide? Can we observe a decline in inflation expectations? The latest wave of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy examines economists’ inflation expectations at a global level. The result: although inflation expectations worldwide remain well above central banks’ inflation target, there is a further decline in the expected inflation rate for 2024 compared to previous quarters.
ifo Employment Barometer Rises (December 2023)
More companies in Germany want to hire employees. The ifo Employment Barometer rose to 96.5 points in December, up from 95.9 points in November. “At the moment, service providers in particular are looking for new staff,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “In manufacturing, however, a lack of orders is leading companies to be rather cautious.”
Weak Holiday Trade Weighing on Many Retailers
The business situation for Germany’s retailers has deteriorated. The indicator fell from -8.8 points in November to -12.1 points in December. “For many retailers, business in the first weeks of the holiday season wasn’t as good as they had hoped,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. Their expectations for the coming months also darkened further and remain largely pessimistic.
Price Expectations Rising Again in Germany
The proportion of companies in Germany that want to raise their prices in the coming months is increasing again. The ifo price expectations rose to 19.7 points in December, up from 18.1 points* in November. Price expectations reached their temporary low in August 2023 at a balance of 14.5 points. “This means the decline in inflation rates is likely to stall for the time being,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
German Export Expectations Fall (December 2023)
Sentiment in the German export industry has deteriorated. The ifo Export Expectations fell to -6.7 points in December, down from -4.1 points in November. “Seasonal cheer is lacking in the export business,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Companies see few encouraging prospects for the start of the year.”
ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony Winter 2023: Recovery Without Momentum
Economic output in eastern Germany and Saxony will increase slightly in 2024, by 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent respectively. This means the upturn remains below the level expected in the summer. In Germany as a whole, the economic recovery will be slightly stronger at an annual average of 0.9 percent.
ifo Business Climate Index Falls (December 2023)
Sentiment in German business has clouded over. The ifo Business Climate Index fell to 86.4 points in December, down from 87.2 points (seasonally adjusted) in November. Companies were less satisfied with their current business. They were also more skeptical about the first half of 2024. As the year draws to a close, the German economy remains weak.
Business Climate for Self-Employed Turns Even More Negative
The business climate for Germany’s self-employed has deteriorated, finds the latest ifo survey for this segment (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”). The index fell to -18.8 points* in November, down from -16.2 points* in October. “In contrast to the economy as a whole, there’s still no light at the end of the tunnel for Germany’s self-employed,” says ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber. “We don’t see any sign of a recovery on the horizon.”
ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2023: Economic Recovery Delayed – Budget Gap Harbors New Risks
Price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise by 0.9% next year, following a decline of 0.3% this year.
Gloomy Prospects for Residential Construction in Germany
The clouds continue to gather over German residential construction. More and more companies are lamenting a lack of orders. In November, 49.1% of businesses had this complaint, up from 48.7% in the previous month. This is now the eighth increase in a row. Order cancellations were reported by 21.5% of companies, almost as many as in the previous month (22.2%). “Residential construction companies are hemorrhaging customers. High construction costs and the current interest rate level are causing many builders to despair. Many projects simply no longer pay off under these conditions and have to be postponed or canceled,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
The German Debt Brake – Anchor of Stability or Blocker of Investments?
On November 15, 2023, the Second Senate of Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court declared the second supplementary budget for 2021 unconstitutional. The reasons given included a violation of the debt brake enshrined in the country’s Basic Law (Art. 109 and Art. 115). As a result, the regular budget and parts of the special funds for 2023 and 2024 will have to be significantly restructured. The 45th ifo and FAZ Economists Panel is dedicated to the consequences of the ruling and focuses on the debt brake, which was at the center of discussions following the ruling. The survey, in which 187 economics professors took part, was conducted from November 28 to December 5, 2023.
Friday and Monday Most Common Days for Working from Home in Germany
In Germany, the days on which working from home is most prevalent are Friday and Monday, finds a recent ifo Institute survey. “Friday is the most common day for working from home in 55% of companies, ahead of Monday at 35%. By contrast, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays are usually office days, also for employees who work from home some of the time,” says ifo researcher Simon Krause. This pattern can be seen in all sectors of the economy and across small, medium-sized, and large companies, albeit to different degrees. “Especially on Fridays, many offices are empty in companies with a large proportion of people working from home,” he adds.
Business Climate in Germany’s Chemical Industry Improves Slightly
The business climate in Germany’s chemical industry improved somewhat in November, with the indicator rising to -12.8 points, up from -14.7 points* in October. This means the mood among chemical companies remained subdued, according to the latest ifo survey. “The long-awaited measures in the energy package have obviously not met the chemical industry’s hopes,” says industry expert Anna Wolf of the ifo Institute.
Retailers Expect Little Help from Christmas Sales
The business situation for Germany’s retailers has improved somewhat. The indicator rose from -13.5 points* in October to -8.8 points in November. According to the latest ifo survey, this is the first increase in three months. “Despite the slightly improved mood among retailers, demand – which has been weak all year – remains a challenge even in the period of strong sales during the run-up to Christmas,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. Christmas business is therefore unlikely to provide a surprisingly strong boost this year. Expectations for the coming months remain pessimistic.
Business Climate in Germany’s Automotive Industry a Little Cooler
Sentiment in the German automotive industry has deteriorated marginally. In November, the Business Climate Index for the industry slipped to -16.8 points, down from -16.3 points* in October. “Companies in the automotive industry rate their current business situation as better than in the previous month, but are more pessimistic about the months ahead,” says Anita Wölfl, a specialist at the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies.
ifo Business Climate Saxony Climbs (November 2023)
The business climate in Saxony improved considerably in November. The monthly sentiment barometer for the Saxon economy rose to 92.9 points. The Saxon companies surveyed assessed their current business situation as tangibly better than in October, and they raised their business expectations somewhat.
Slightly More Companies in Germany Plan to Raise Prices
Slightly more companies in Germany are planning to raise their prices. The price plans index rose to 18.0 points in November, up from 15.4 points* in October. This is primarily due to business-related service providers and wholesalers, where the balance value climbed from 21.5 points* to 28.3 points. In consumer-related sectors, however, price expectations continued to fall. Among food retailers, the balance fell from 40.7 points* to 34.2 points; among other retailers, from 28.2 points* to 27.7 points; and among consumer-related service providers, from 29.3 points* to 25.5 points. “That means inflation is continuing to decline,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
ifo Business Climate in Eastern Germany Improves (November 2023)
The ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany rose slightly in November. The barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany reached 90.7 points, up from 90.0 points in the previous month. Among the companies surveyed, both their assessments of the current situation and their business expectations improved somewhat.
ifo Employment Barometer Falls (November 2023)
The willingness among companies in Germany to hire new staff has decreased slightly. The ifo Employment Barometer fell to 95.9 points in November, down from 96.2 points in October. “With a solid foundation for recovery still not in sight, companies are putting off hiring new staff,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Many companies continue to complain about a lack of new orders.”
