Demographic Development of the Associations of Municipalities Linz on the Rhine and Bad Hönningen
Project period: June 2019 – July 2019
Research Areas:
Tasks
On behalf of the association of municipalities Linz on the Rhine and Bad Hönningen, the Dresden Branch of the ifo Institute investigates the future demographic development of the associations of municipalities Linz on the Rhine and Bad Hönningen. The study is based on population data from the Statistical Office of Rhineland-Palatinate and the KommWis Ltd. for 2018 and 2019.
Methods
The study shows the future development of the population size and the demographic composition of the associations of municipalities Linz on the Rhine and Bad Hönningen up to 2035. We analyze the influence of different migration scenarios on the population development. The assumptions regarding the future migration balance, birth rates and mortality rates are based on the methodological approach of the Statistical Office of Rhineland-Palatinate. In contrast to the calculations of the Statistical Office of Rhineland-Palatinate, our population projection is based on population size data from the KommWis Ltd. (2019).
Data and other sources
Land Statistical Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (2019), KommWis Ltd. (2019), United Nations – World Population Prospects 2019
Results
Our calculations at municipal level show a more optimistic picture than the projections of the ‘Fifth Regionalized Population Projection’ from the Land Statistical Office of Rhineland-Palatinate. The study shows that the future demographic development at municipal level is strongly dependent on the assumptions about the future trends in migration flows. But those assumptions are associated with large uncertainty. Therefore, we conclude that for political decisions small-scale population projections should be used with caution.
