Skilled Workers for Thuringia – a demand Forecast with Perspective 2035

Tasks

Together with the Gesellschaft für wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (Society for Economic Structure Research), the Dresden branch of the ifo Institute examined the extent of future labor shortages in Thuringia. The Free State is one of the German states with the sharpest decline in the labor force by 2035, meaning that labor supply will be lower than labor demand in a large number of occupational groups. The common response to this problem is to organize increased immigration to fill this gap. However, Germany, and especially the eastern German states, are generally considered not to be particularly attractive for well-educated workers. In addition, bureaucratic hurdles and a similarly tense demographic situation in many potential countries of origin make it difficult to acquire foreign skilled workers. This study therefore proposes ways to expand the labor supply by activating domestic potential (especially by improving the integration of women into the labor market and reducing part-time work) or by upgrading the workforce through qualification. There is also considerable potential to reduce the demand for labor through rationalization. Nevertheless, there is a risk that future economic development may be hampered by a lack of labor.