Evaluation of Corona Economic Aid in Bavaria

Tasks

The study will be conducted within a framework agreement with the Chamber of Commerce and Industry for Munich and Upper Bavaria. This is a major, ongoing project involving independent, scientifically based economic advisory work. Details

During the Corona pandemic, numerous programs were launched to cushion the pandemic-related economic crisis. The programs differ in terms of funding volume, access criteria, duration and other dimensions. In Bavaria, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry for Munich and Upper Bavaria (IHK für München und Oberbayern) is responsible for managing the economic aid programs.

To date, there are only relatively rough aggregate economic analyses of economic aid due to a lack of data availability, data evaluation expertise and the fact that some programs are still running or due to repayments/final accounts.  However, in-depth understanding and impact analysis of actions taken during the Corona pandemic is an essential building block for designing effective responses in future crises.

The following guiding questions are to be answered in the processing of the study: 

1.  which companies in comparison to the population of companies in Bavaria have taken advantage of economic aid? 
2. for which companies (sectors/company sizes) did closure orders/measures to contain the pandemic result in particularly high/low sales losses? 
3. were there windfall profits, e.g., by smoothing out sales over time? 
4. what role do auditing third parties play in the success of the application?
    

Methods

On the basis of the anonymized data set of the applicants, descriptive evaluations and mul-tivariate regression analyses, in which various influencing factors can be taken into account at the same time, are used to analyze the utilization, rejections, repayments, etc. in detail by region and economic sector, among other things.

Data and Other Sources

• Anonymized data from the application and approval process for Corona economic aid from the Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria.
• Comparative data from Orbis-Wirtschaftsdatenbank.
• Other publicly available official statistics