Ifo Industry Colloquium 2009

On 26 October 2009 the Ifo Institute organised its ninth Ifo Industry Colloquium in cooperation with the Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria and with support from the Bavarian State Ministry of Economic Affairs, Infrastructure, Transport and Technology. The purpose of this conference was to analyse the state of the overall economy as well as the economic developments in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing as well as in selected services. Peter Driessen, main executive director of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, opened the conference by looking back to the situation a year ago, at the last Ifo Industry Colloquium, which took place shortly after the bankruptcy of Lehmann Brothers. He mentioned a Handelsblatt article of 8 September 2008, which assessed a 20 percent probability of a recession. The turbulence caused by the collapse of the investment bank and the impact on the real economy were still inconceivable at the time. In the meantime, the worldwide economic stimulus programmes have had their effects and further breakdowns of system-relevant banks have been avoided. The rapid plunge in economic activity in Germany is now over, GDP having increased in the second quarter of 2009 and in all likelihood also in the third quarter of 2009. But it is still too early for the all-clear signal, Driessen stressed, because hard times could still come in the medium term. After his introduction, the business trends in manufacturing, distribution, construction and the services were discussed in four separate forums. Each of these sessions began with an introduction by an Ifo expert, supplemented by contributions from external experts. In the second part of the conference, Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the Ifo Institute, gave his analysis of the economic situation in Germany and in Europe as a whole. A "dialog of business and policy-makers" concluded the conference. Since the invited economics minister zu Guttenberg had to cancel his appearance at the last minute, Hans-Werner Sinn looked at the policy side by examining the agreement of the new governing coalition. Hermut Kormann, who was active in industry for more than 40 years, presented the business perspective.