ifo Schnelldienst 04/2020: Quarantine the World

Quarantine the World: How Will Economies Develop in the Grip of Covid-19?

Covid-19 – a novel, highly contagious lung disease – has pushed the world into a state of emergency. In many countries, public life has come to a virtual standstill. In Germany, too, both government and companies have taken drastic measures to stem the spread of the pandemic: travel restrictions, a ban on events, the closure of schools and universities, of hotels and restaurants, and the shuttering of factories and service providers. 
The side-effects of these measures are hitting the German economy hard: according to scenarios from the ifo Institute, production losses will cost Germany’s economy hundreds of billions of euros, they will drive up short-time work and unemployment, and they will put a considerable strain on the national budget. And the effects will be all the more serious the longer the restrictions now decided upon last.  How much growth can we expect to lose? Which sectors are particularly affected? What effects will the coronavirus pandemic have on statutory pension insurance? How effective are the economic policy measures?

With contributions from

• Florian Dorn, Clemens Fuest, Marcell Göttert, Carla Krolage, Stefan Lautenbacher, Sebastian Link, Andreas Peichl, Magnus Reif, Stefan Sauer, Marc Stöckli, Klaus Wohl-rabe, and Timo Wollmershäuser, The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Germany: A Scenario Calculation
• Axel Börsch-Supan and Johannes Rausch, Coronavirus Pandemic: Effects on Statutory Pension Insurance
• Stefan Sauer and Klaus Wohlrabe, Business Survey in Focus: German Economy in Coronavirus Shock
• Johannes Blum, Martin Mosler, Niklas Potrafke, and Fabian Ruthardt, Economists Panel: How Do Economists Assess the Economic Policy Responses to the Coronavirus Crisis?
• Joint Economic Forecast Project Group: Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2020: Economy in Shock – Fiscal Policy to Counteract