Companies in Germany are proving more cautious in their personnel planning. The ifo Employment Barometer slipped to 96.0 points in April, down from 96.3 points in March. “A lack of orders is causing some companies to put the brakes on hiring,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “But service providers in some industries, such as data processing and tourism, are taking people on.”
Le moral des exportateurs allemands s’est légèrement dégradé. L’indice ifo des prévisions en matière d’exportations a chuté, passant de – 1,2 point en mars à – 2,0 points en avril. « Le climat est plutôt morose », constate Klaus Wohlrabe, directeur des enquêtes de l’Institut ifo. « Les exportations manquent actuellement de dynamisme. Les perspectives de croissance largement positives de l’économie mondiale ne se reflètent pas encore dans des prises de commandes supplémentaires. »
Sentiment in the German export industry has clouded over a little. The ifo Export Expectations fell to -2.0 points in April, down from -1.2 points in March. “The mood is somewhat subdued,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “The export economy lacks momentum at present. While the global economy offers many good prospects for growth, these aren’t yet being reflected in additional orders.”
Le moral des dirigeants d’entreprise allemands s’est amélioré. En avril, l’indice ifo du climat des affaires est passé à 89,4 points, contre 87,9 points[1] au mois de mars. Il s’agit de la troisième amélioration consécutive. Les entreprises se déclarent plus satisfaites de la marche de leurs activités et se montrent plus optimistes pour l’avenir. La conjoncture se stabilise, notamment grâce au secteur des services.
Munich, April 24, 2024 – Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 89.4 points in April, up from 87.9 points1 in March. This is its third consecutive rise. Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.
Workers from the Central and Eastern European countries that acceded to the EU in 2004 have filled gaps in the German labor market, finds a study by the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch. Exactly 20 years later, around 820,000 workers from these ten countries are now employed in Germany. Together, they make up 2.4% of the German workforce. “Contrary to the fears of many, this has not led to German workers being pushed out of the labor market,” says Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director of ifo Dresden. “People from the Central and Eastern European accession countries are mainly employed in industries and professions that aren’t very attractive to local workers due to low wages or unfavorable working conditions.”
Les économistes du monde entier anticipent une baisse des taux d’inflation dans les prochaines années. C’est ce qui ressort de l’Economic Experts Survey (EES), un sondage trimestriel réalisé par l’Institut ifo et l’Institut de politique économique suisse IWP. D’après cette enquête, le taux d’inflation mondial devrait atteindre 4,6 % en 2024, avant de retomber à 4,4 % en 2025 et à 4,0 % en 2027. Cette année, l’inflation devrait être de 3,1 % en Allemagne, de 4,2 % en Autriche et de 1,8 % en Suisse. « Les prévisions pour 2024 en matière d’inflation ont de nouveau baissé par rapport au trimestre pré-cédent », constate Niklas Potrafke, chercheur de l’Institut Ifo. « Les experts anti-cipent cependant à l’échelle mondiale des taux d’inflation assez élevés à moyen terme, supérieurs aux objectifs des banques centrales. »
Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to decline in the years ahead. This is among the findings of the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this survey, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 4.6% in 2024, then 4.4% next year, and 4.0% in 2027. In Germany, inflation for this year is expected to reach 3.1%, in Austria 4.2%, and in Switzerland 1.8%. “Compared to the previous quarter, inflation expectations for this year have fallen further,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “But in the medium term, the experts expect inflation rates around the world to remain quite high and above central banks’ inflation targets.”
Companies in Germany have revised their investment plans for the current year downward. The ifo investment expectations fell to -0.1 points in March, down from +1.2 points in November. “Global demand for capital goods and intermediate goods remains weak and uncertainties persist regarding economic policy. As a result, many companies are postponing their investment decisions,” says Lara Zarges, economic expert at the ifo Institute.
Uncertainty among the self-employed in Germany has increased. As a result, the business climate for this segment has deteriorated, according to the latest ifo survey in March (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”). The index fell to -15.6 points*, down from -14.6 points* in February. “Contrary to the situation in the other sectors of the economy, the self-employed are experiencing increasing doubt,” says ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber.
The business climate in Germany’s chemical industry improved in March. The index rose to -10.5 points, up from -15.5 points* in February. Business expectations improved sharply, with the indicator climbing to -2.9 points, up from -14.9 points in February. “Although the order situation in the chemical industry still leaves a lot to be desired, companies seem to have weathered the worst of the crisis,” says industry expert Anna Wolf from the ifo Institute.
German manufacturers hardly have to struggle with material shortages anymore. In March, 10.2% of the companies surveyed reported shortages, down from 14.6% in February. “The supply of raw materials and intermediate products has recently seen significant improvement,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “The situation is now almost back to how it was before the coronavirus crisis.”
Cancellations in German residential construction have increased. Just under one in five companies (19.6%) reported canceled orders. In February, the figure was 17.7%. “The situation in residential construction remains tense,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “There aren’t enough new orders to offset the cancellations.”
Fewer companies in Germany say they are dependent on intermediate products from China. This is the finding of an ifo Institute survey, according to which 37% of all manufacturing companies in Germany are currently dependent on important intermediate products from China. In February 2022, immediately before the start of the war in Ukraine, the figure was 46%. “At the same time, we see that fewer companies are looking to reduce their imports from China in the future,” says Lisandra Flach, Director of the ifo Center for International Economics. Two years ago, nearly half of manufacturers were still planning to do so. In the latest survey, this proportion fell to 38%.
Un rapport rédigé par un groupe d'économistes français, allemands et italiens critique la politique d'innovation de l'UE et l'orientation des dépenses en matière de recherche et de développement en Europe et appelle à des changements. « L'UE est en train de perdre la course à l'innovation, renonçant ainsi à son bien-être économique et à son influence réglementaire et géopolitique. Son absence totale dans le groupe des 20 premières entreprises technologiques et des 20 premières start-ups est de mauvais augure. Elle dépense trop peu en R&D et se concentre sur le mid-tech », déclare Jean Tirole, lauréat du prix Nobel et membre de la Toulouse School of Economics. Clemens Fuest, président de l'Ifo, ajoute : « Les investissements dans la recherche européenne se concentrent sur l'industrie automobile et les secteurs similaires, alors que l'Europe est de plus en plus à la traîne dans les secteurs de haute technologie en plein essor, comme l'économie numérique. Le continent est pris au piège de la technologie intermédiaire ».
A report by a group of economists from France, Germany and Italy criticizes the EU’s innovation policy and the direction of spending on research and development in Europe and calls for changes. “The EU is losing the innovation race, thereby giving up on economic well-being and surrendering regulatory and geopolitical influence. Its complete absence in the group of top-20 tech companies and top-20 start-ups is ominous. It spends too little on R&D and focuses on mid-tech,” says Nobel laureate Jean Tirole from the Toulouse School of Economics. ifo President Clemens Fuest adds: “Investment in the EU research is concentrated in the automotive industry and similar sectors, while Europe is being left ever further behind in growing high-tech sectors such as the digital economy. The continent is caught in a mid-tech trap.”
L’attractivité économique actuelle de l’Allemagne pour ses entreprises nationales se situe seulement dans la moyenne européenne. C’est ce qui ressort d’une enquête réalisée par l’Institut ifo et l’Institut de politique économique suisse IWP auprès des économistes de plusieurs pays. Les experts nationaux interrogés évaluent l’attractivité économique de l’Allemagne à 61,3 points sur 100. L’Autriche obtient quant à elle 72,4 points, et la Suisse 72,6 points. « Ce résultat n’est pas brillant pour l’économie allemande. Dans ce pays, 78 % des personnes interrogées estiment notamment que l’Allemagne a perdu en attractivité au cours des dix dernières années. 48 % anticipent même une nouvelle dégradation au cours des dix prochaines années », explique Luisa Dörr, chercheuse à l’Institut ifo.
Germany’s current attractiveness as a location for homegrown companies ranks only in the middle among its European peers. This is a finding of an international survey of economic experts conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. When asked to rate Germany’s attractiveness as a business location, the experts there awarded it 61.3 points out of a possible 100. Austria achieved 72.4 points, while Switzerland scored 72.6 points. “This isn’t a terrific result for the German economy. In particular, 78 percent of respondents in Germany think that their country has become less attractive as a business location over the past ten years. A full 48 percent expect the situation to worsen over the next ten years,” says ifo researcher Luisa Dörr.
Les électeurs des partis populistes de droite s’expriment plus pour la destruction de l’État-providence que les autres électeurs afin de pouvoir faire face à la concurrence d’autres pays. C’est ce que révèle une en-quête menée auprès de 12 000 électeurs en Allemagne, en France, en Espagne et au Royaume-Uni. « Le spectre du populisme de droite conçoit l’État social comme un moyen de redistribution des ressources vers les immigrés », explique Marcel Thum, directeur de l’établissement ifo de Dresde.
Inequality in the labor market between men and women in Germany is at its greatest when there are children involved, finds an international research group that has examined the development of inequality in 17 countries in Europe and North America over the past 50 years. Among 30-year-olds, mothers earn on average 70 to 80% less than fathers. For childless people of the same age, the difference is much smaller and has fallen to less than 5%.