Pension

The aging of society poses major challenges for the statutory pension system in Germany in the coming decades. By the mid-2030s, the baby boomer generation will have gradually retired. In the 1950s, when the basic features of the statutory pension insurance (GRV) in its current form were established, the burden was easy to shoulder: there were six people of working age to pay for one pensioner. Today, the financial burden is already concentrated on just three people of working age. And in 2050, there will only be two working-age people left to finance each pensioner. What do these shifts mean for the statutory pension insurance system? What measures must be taken to make financing the system sustainable?

 

Rentnerpaar auf einer Parkbank
Rentnerpaar auf einer Parkbank

The causes of the looming financing difficulties in the pension insurance system are the declining birth rate since the early 1970s on the one hand and increased life expectancy on the other – both being developments that go back a long way. However, the demographically induced increase in pension insurance expenditure is compounded by the additional burdens that policymakers have generated in recent years through substantial benefit expansions. These include the extensions to the maternity pension, the introduction of the pension at 63, reforms to the reduced earning capacity pension, the double stop line, the basic pension, and the suspension of the catch-up factor introduced in 2008. These pension reforms have increased the pension entitlements of certain select groups of people and partially reversed efforts to stabilize the pension fund (such as the introduction of the sustainability factor in 2004 and the gradual increase in the regular retirement age to 67 starting in 2012).

Infographic: How many contributors finance one pensioner?

Sustainable Reforms Necessary

The only ways to uphold the existing GRV system are by either raising the pension insurance contributions or the tax-financed federal subsidies to the GRV, lowering the (relative) pension level, or extending working life. In the first case, the burden is borne solely by the respective working generation, in the second case by the respective generation of pensioners, and in the third case by future pensioners. Fundamentally, there is no other solution that doesn’t deviate from the current principle of “contribution equivalence” in the GRV.

“A heavy burden on pension funds is the suspension of the catch-up factor until 2025. The associated decoupling of pension development from wage development leads to a relatively stronger increase in pensions than in employee compensation.”

Prof. Dr. Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director ifo Dresden

Increasing the Standard Retirement Age

The German government should not adopt any further pension packages that would drive up the already rapidly growing expenditure on old-age provision in the long term, and it should not extend the suspension of the catch-up factor and the double stop line beyond 2025. To make financing the pension system sustainable in the long term, there is no way around increasing the standard retirement age in Germany. The increase in the standard retirement age should be rule-based – linked to life expectancy or to years of life in good health (HALE, Healthy Life Expectancy) – in order to minimize opportunistic short-term behavior by future governments. In addition, the increase in the standard retirement age should be accompanied by social measures in order to ensure that people with poorer health status or in occupations that are particularly physically demanding receive a fair share of pension benefits.

Video

ifo Podcast: Pension Increase 2022 – Excessive Burden for Younger Generation?

Pensions will be increased more than they have been for a long time in the summer of 2022 – as a result of wage increases in 2021. What role do the sustainability factor and the catch-up factor play in this? What are the long-term challenges facing the pay-as-you-go system – and how could they be tackled now?

Contact
Portraitbild Prof. Joachim Ragnitz

Prof. Dr. Joachim Ragnitz

Managing Director ifo Dresden
Tel
+49(0)351/26476-17
Fax
+49(0)351/26476-20
Mail
Portraitbild Prof. Marcel Thum

Prof. Dr. Marcel Thum

Director ifo Dresden
Tel
+49(0)351/26476-19
Fax
+49(0)351/26476-20
Mail
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